Research On The Coupling And Coordination Relationship Between New-type Urbanization And Real Estate Industry In Guangzhou

The new-type urbanization is the necessary way for a country’s economic and social modernization,and it can provide sufficient impetus for the sustained and healthy development of the new economic normality in the new era.The real estate industry is a barometer of macroeconomic operations,and its linkage effect has also affected the development of the national economy.The promotion of new-type urbanization has brought opportunities and challenges to the real estate industry.The development of the real estate industry has also laid the foundation of materials for new-type urbanization.This paper takes Guangzhou,one of the national new-type urbanization pilot cities,as the research object,aiming to study the relationship between the new-type urbanization and the real estate industry,and achieve to be coordinated and orderly development.This paper firstly expounds the related concepts,development process and interaction between the new-type urbanization and real estate industry,analyzes the current development situation based on the status quo,and constructs two sets of evaluation index systems respectively;Secondly,the empirical analysis of the statistical data from 2013 to 2017 is carried out by means of Stationarity test,Cointegration test and Granger causality test.Finally,the coupling coordination degree model was introduced,and the coupling coordination of the two was calculated by Eviews7.0 measurement software.Development index,comprehensive coordination index,coupling coordination degree are used to analyze the coupled and coordinated development status,and GeoDa drawing software is used for spatial feature analysis.The main research conclusions are as follows: First,the time series test results of new-type urbanization and real estate industry in Guangzhou show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the two objects.In the long run,the urbanization rate is not the Granger reason of real estate development investment,and the acceleration of real estate development investment is the Granger reason for the increase of urbanization rate;Second,the comprehensive index shows that in different development periods,Guangzhou’s new-type urbanization and real estate industry comprehensive index difference is obvious,has not reached synchronous and steady development stage,the benign resonance of coupling and coordination has not yet reached the whole;Third,the calculation results of coupling coordination degree show that the new-type urbanization and real estate industry in Guangzhou in 2013-2014 is in the stage of moderate imbalance;in 2014-2016 the coupling coordination degree is in the stage of slight imbalance;in 2016-2017,the two are in the stage of coordination;Fourth,the spatial analysis results show that the coupling coordination level of the two is continuously improved,the spatial agglomeration effect is obvious,and the spatial performance is "continuously strengthening the spatial agglomeration effect of the four central areas,radiating and diffusing to the surrounding areas,forming a layer structure having a spatial spillover effect,present ’center-periphery’ distribution tendency of decrease " characteristic.Finally,based on the conclusions,relevant policy recommendations are put forward to promote the coordination and progress of the two objects,and to continuously improve the quality of livable and suitable cities.