Reliability Evaluation And Simulation Study Of Furniture Supply Chain Under Uncertain Environment

At present,the development of China’s furniture industry has entered a new historical stage.In order to accommodate the competitive environment,furniture enterprises not only to upgrade,so that the production equipment is more advanced,production and production to achieve industrialization,the formation of a large number of convenient circulation of the furniture market in the country,but also to promote the rapid development of the furniture industry and related enterprises.Even so,China’s furniture industry still has many problems,furniture supply chain is a lot of uncertainty.In 2018,affected by the trade war,the retail sales and export delivery value of China’s furniture market both declined,with the market retail sales and export delivery value down 19.9%and 7.5%respectively.From January to February in 2019,the retail sales volume of the furniture market is decreased by 18.2%and the export delivery value is decreased by 2.0%.It can be seen that when the furniture supply chain is disturbed by uncertain factors in the external or internal environment,the furniture industry will produce considerable fluctuations.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the reliability of the furniture supply chain,quantitative evaluation and the level of the reliability of the supply chain,the weak parts identification that will affect the reliability of the supply chain,and then put forward effective measures.First,through a large number of domestic and foreign literature,furniture supply chain related research status at home and abroad is briefly introduced.Secondly,the supply chain management theory,system reliability theory,supply chain reliability theory and other related theories are summarized,and then the furniture supply chain reliability is defined.Thirdly,the reliability evaluation index system of furniture supply chain member enterprises is analyzed,the reliability evaluation index system of furniture supply chain is put forward,and the advantages of the index system are explained.Finally,on the basis of A furniture company in the supply chain the specific case of quantitative calculation of the furniture in the case of normal operation of the supply chain reliability as well as affected by emergencies when facing uncertainty environment of supply chain reliability,according to the change of the contrast between before and after reliability analysis of the reliability level of A furniture company in the supply chain and supply chain of the weak links.Based on the basic principle of GO method and the network structure diagram of furniture supply chain,the paper generates the furniture supply chain system GO diagram,carries out the GO quantitative operation accordingly,obtains the reliability value,and puts forward the grade standard of furniture supply chain reliability evaluation,and divides the quantitative reliability value.The specific calculation method and process of GO method in the reliability evaluation of furniture supply chain are expounded through example analysis,and the calculation results are used as the basis for the reliability evaluation of furniture supply chain system.According to the evaluation conclusion,the overall reliability level of furniture supply chain is analyzed,and the countermeasures to ensure the reliability of furniture supply chain are put forward.The main contributions of this paper are summarized as follows:the establishment of a reasonable reliability evaluation index system of furniture supply chain,the establishment of a reliability quantitative evaluation model based on GO method,and the proposed criteria of furniture reliability classification.