Early Waring Of Imported Fish Meal’s Price Risk

As the major animal protein source in feed for livestock and aquaculture, fish meal isan important material to feed processing industry. China is a big country of animal husbandry andaquaculture,but also a big feed producing country, consuming mass of fish meal,but fish mealindustry is highly dependent on fishery resources.The yield of fishmeal in China is low for thelimited coastal fisheries resources,and the domestic consumption is mostly dependent on foreignimport,which makes China a high import dependency country of fishmeal.The price of importedfish meal is volatile affected by the complicated international and domestic markets, making thefishmeal-related industry facing a huge price risk. Analysing the risk from imported fish mealprice, and establishing early warning system for the price risk have a practical application for fishtraders, feed manufacturers and livestock, aquaculture farmers.This paper first reviews the related concepts about risk and price risk,and summarizes mainmethods based on the studies of domestic and foreign scholars about researching on early warningof price rick.Then we describe the current situation of fishmeal ’s markets home and abroad todistinguish the alarming sources and waring signs of price risk.In this paper,we discuss thealarming sources in terms of the cost of production, supply and demand, currency values,expectations, international policy and climatic factors, and determine BDI,imports of fish meal,fish stocks, soybean meal prices, production of pig feed, aquatic feed production, production ofpoultry feed, international price index for the warning signs of early warning systems.After establishing the early-warning indicators,we collect the data from from January2008to December2010,and choose the first33data series as an early warning modelof BP neural network training samples using DPS data processing system to simulateBP model.We divide the data into five districts, namely, red-light district (L5), yellow zone (L4),green area (L3), light blue area (L2) and the blue light region (L1)on basis of the monthlyimported fish meal’s price from2008to2010in descending order.We suggest that, when thedomestic price of imported fish meal is over11,432.4yuan/t, the time of the fish meal price istoo high and is in red light; when the price is lower than7210.5yuan/t, lower prices, in blue lightdistrict. Both are in the alarming zone. DPS data processing system in the use of BP neuralnetwork simulation model, the District of risk between the quantitative value from-1to1, and so asthe BP network model output value.After750iterating, we establish an early warning model forimported fish meal’s price risk,then we choose the last three data series from the sample to verifythe accuracy of the model.The output of the test is near the risk value showing the fitted modelwith high accuracy, and be able to warn the price risk.At last, we use the data of January2011andFebruary2011to predict the risk value, it shows us that the price risk is high at the beginning of2011,and the fish meal’s price of February is too high in the red alarming zone.In the end, weput forward puts forward the measures to circumvent for reference,according todomestic imported fish meal’s price risk. In the application of early warning models, we need to establish a predictive model of each indexto warn the next forecast’s price risk, which needs to be further refined after comprehensiveanalysis in the future research. In2001China joined the World Trade Organization, China’s importand export trade of agricultural bulk products is closely related with the international market,, theprice risk of the early warning research is necessary for the high dependence on imported feedingredients market.Under the background that China’s fishmeal is in short supply and it relies heavily onimported goods, to establish the waring system of the fish meal market has greatsignificance for the feed industry, animal husbandry and aquacultures’ sustained andhealthy development.Meanwhile, in an increasingly prosperous international trade,the early warning for price risk of international raw material has a certainsignificance.