Research On Financial Crisis Warning Of Manufacturing Listed Companies Based On Neural Network Model

With the advancement of Artificial Intelligence,machine learning lead a new wave of "fintech",which applies all over the field.At the same time,affected by external financial crisis and market competition,the financial risk that the enterprise faces also increases ceaselessly,therefore,finding a suitable financial early warning model has been the focus of scholars.Financial early warning models of different industries have different characteristics.This paper takes listed manufacturing companies as the research object,Manufacturing industry is the pillar of the national economy,and manufacturing listed companies take a great proportion in the A-share market.This paper combines qualitative and quantitative methods.After reading a large number of relevant classic literature and books,and summarizing the practical experience,this paper analyzes the background causes of the financial crisis of listed companies from both internal and external aspects,introduce the importance and function of financial crisis warning.In terms of model construction,the indicators affecting financial crisis are summarized from financial factors and non-financial factors.selecting the manufacturing ST companies that have been specially treated for the first time from 2016 to 2018,a total of 120 companies,including 100 training samples and 20 test samples,were selected to be paired with non-st companies with similar assets and industries in a 1:1 ratio.After applying multi collinearity test,KMO and Bartlett spherical test and factor analysis test,six valuable early warning indicators were selected.On this basis,trainlm algorithm in MATLAB was used to train the neural network model,and then the test samples were used for simulation test.Finally,the accuracy rate of the model was up to 80%,which shows that the model can judge whether the company has financial crisis.Finally,I put forward five suggestions about the financial risks of listed manufacturing companies :(1)establish transparent and efficient internal control system and improve internal control process;(2)formulate reasonable loan plan and repayment plan;(3)strengthen cash flow management and integrate it with the company’s strategic development;(4)enhance the profitability and growth of listed companies;(5)enhance the market value of listed companies,expand the share of sales market and the market value of capital market.