| Manufacturing is the cornerstone industry of modern economy and industrial development,and plays a key role in establishing a country's core industry comparative advantage,climbing the high end of the global value chain,and strengthening international competitiveness.Since joining the World Trade Organization,the low labor cost brought by the domestic demographic dividend has enabled China to create a strong competitive advantage in the increasingly globalized world division of labor and trade,and China has become a major manufacturing trade country in the world.However,the extensive economic growth mode adopted by our country in the past to increase output through increased investment and labor input has caused a lot of pressure on the environment.The low-cost human advantage has gradually weakened with the improvement of living standards.Obviously,the extensive industry development model is no longer sustainable and competitive,and China urgently needs supply-side reform and structural optimization of supporting industries.Therefore,how to use producer services which are rich in advanced production factors as intermediate inputs to improve the production efficiency and technological content of the manufacturing industry from the source,and ultimately promote the overall export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is currently an important issue concerning exploring a country's industrial upgrading path.This paper mainly verifies the direction and path of the impact of producer service import complexity on the overall export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry from three aspects—impact mechanism analysis,status analysis and panel empirical testing.Firstly,the impact mechanism analysis section analyzes the three major efects of technology spillovers,human capital,and cost competition and proposes that the impact of imported producer service's quality on manufacturing export competitiveness is not completely positive.Using foreign direct investment,human capital and R&D investment as threshold variables,it may exist that the direction and degree of the impact of imported producer service's quality will change significantly after the threshold value.Secondly,the status analysis section analyzes the development status of the overall and sub-sectors of the Chinese producer service industry and the technical content and also,the export competitiveness of the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole and sub-sectors in order to dig further into the consistency of the historical trend between the producer service import complexity and the export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.Thirdly,the panel empirical test section systematically tests the hypotheses proposed in the impact mechanism analysis section through the following two steps—Basic panel regression,then Threshold panel regression.The empirical data is the panel data of the explained variables,core explanatory variables and control variables of 28 countries from 2007 to 2018.This paper builds a basic regression model first,using generalized least squares method(GLS)to exert a regression analysis of the degree to which producer service import technology complexity affects manufacturing export competitiveness,and draw the following conclusions:1.From the full sample regression,the import technical complexity of the overall producer services has a significant positive impact on the overall export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry;2.From the regression of the manufacturing sub-samples,it can be seen that the overall import complexity of the producer services trade has the most significant effect on the export competition of high-tech manufacturing,while the effect on the export competitiveness of the low-tech manufacturing industry is the least;3.From the regression of the producer service sub-samples,it can be seen that the stimulating effect of high-tech producer service on the establishment of export advantage of the manufacturing industry is the largest,followed by the producer services with medium-tech content,and finally comes the low-tech producer services,but they can still pass the 10%significance test.The threshold panel regression section adopts the threshold model created by Hansen(1999)to test whether the threshold effect of technical complexity of productive service imports on manufacturing export competitiveness exists under the three different threshold variables—Foreign direct investment,Human capital,and R&D investment,in this way,the threshold hypothesis proposed in the impact mechanism analysis section can be verified.The conclusions are as follows:1.There is only one threshold for Foreign direct investment.Before the threshold is crossed,the manufacturing export competitive advantage strengthens with the improvement of technical complexity of producer service imports.After passing the threshold,the manufacturing export competitive advantage is weakened in reverse with the increasing of the technical complexity of producer service imports,showing the threshold characteristic of rising first and then suppressing;2.There are three thresholds for Human capital.The increase in imports of high-tech producer services will firstly cause a synchronous decline in the overall export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry,with a negative coefficient.Once the first threshold is crossed,the increase in imports of producer services begins to stimulate the overall export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry,and the coefficient becomes positive.However,after the third threshold,the impact coefficient begins to fall again,while still positive,showing the threshold characteristics of "suppression-promotion-suppression ";3 R&D investment shows the same " suppression-promotion-suppression " influence path with Human capital,The only difference exists that regardless of which threshold range it lies in,the direction of the impact of the technical complexity of producer service imports on manufacturing export competitiveness does not change,which is always positive. |
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