| With the continuous adjustment of international economic structure and the sustained development of economic and trade relationship between China and Russia,agricultural trade has become an important part in economic and trade cooperation between the two countries and its significance shows an increasing essentiality in the Chinese agricultural foreign trade.However,for a long time,the development of Chinese agricultural trade has been in a dissatisfied as well as fluctuant condition in various global economic and political environment.Therefore,deep analysis on influential factors of agricultural export of China to Russia is needed to enrich the theory of influential factors on long-term developing tendency of trade and influential extent on short-term events as well as accelerate the development of trade and economic cooperation relation.Firstly,the scale and good structure of agricultural export of China to Russia are analyzed and the situation of fast export scale increase and export good proportion imbalance are introduced.Trade competition index and trade complementary index are utilized to measure the decrease of competitiveness.The outside environmental factors of economical development status of Russia,entry to WTO and the economic sanctions from Europe and America are analysed.Based on the problems above,empirical analysis on factors of agricultural export of China to Russia is demonstrated by means of constant market share model.The influence of export scale,structure and export competitiveness in the four periods of 1996-2000,2001-2007,2008-2009 and 2010-2014 are calculated and compared.The result shows that scale effect is always outstanding while fluctuations of competitiveness effect and interaction effect are rather obvious.The main reason on influencing Chinese agricultural export to Russia is its import volume,while the weak match of Chinese agricultural export and Russian import market demand and lack of products competitiveness impair the export.In the end,suggestions are made adjusting the structure of agricultural export,bringing geography into play,improving the quality of agricultural products and perfecting industry chain. |
