| In 2013,the strategic concept of "One Belt and One Road" was proposed byPresident Xi.On the one hand,it meets the needs of our country's readjustment to adapt to changes of the global economics.On the other hand,it meets the requirement of deepening the reform and opening up in our country."One Belt and One Road" is a great strategy,which have a profound impact on our opening economic system and sustainable development of our economy.What's more,it is helpful to strengthen economic cooperation between Asia,Europe and the world.However,at present,how efficiently are the trade among countries along the one belt and one road?What are the potential trade factors that affect our country and the countries along the one belt and one road?How to seize the opportunities and develop further potential trade between us and other countries along the one belt and one road?Actually,with the establishment of multilateral trade mechanism and free trade zone,the tariff level has dropped down and the non-tariff trade barriers have been reduced,and whether trade is facilitated has become an important factor in affecting the trade between countries,which has gradually become a hot topic among governments and scholars.Therefore,based on the perspective of trade facilitation,this article is mainly about doing the research of trade facilitation indicates and based of the TWTFI,we continued to do research of the trade potential between different countries in the area of "One Belt and One Road".It can provides a very important theory and the real meaning for our country in improving trade efficiency,developing potential trade and looking forward to the trade prospects of "One Belt and One Road".This article is divided into six chapters.In the 1st chapter,you can get a lot of information about this paper's background and significance of the topic selection,definition of related concepts,research objectives,methods,structure,as well as the research innovation and deficiencies In the second chapter,the related literature at home and abroad are reviewed from three aspects:related research on the "One Belt and One Road",related studies on trade facilitation and trade flows,and studies on potential trade.The third chapter is about the analysis of the structural characteristics,which is about China export to other countries during the period of 2001-2016.Firstly,we clearly definite the concept of "One Belt and One Road" and the countries along "One Belt and One Road",which are included in this study.And then we classify these countries according to the perspective of geographical location and per capital income.Through some tables and graphs,we describe the characteristics of trade development between China and the countries along the "One Belt and Road" for 2001-2016,including the steady growth of trade scale,the widening of trade balance and the changes of trade status.The fourth chapter constructed an index system to evaluated the trade facilitation level which contains 4 first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators.Using the principal component analysis(PCA)through SPSS software,the contribution of the second-level indicators and the comprehensive evaluation formula of trade facilitation can be confirmed.According to the formula,the level of trade facilitation between our country and 50 countries along the "Belt and Road" can be calculated and we can know their trade facilitation degree.China's trade facilitation level is moderate and it is relatively convenient.The fifth chapter uses STATA software to study how the factors affect China's trade volume with other countries on the "Belt and Road".Through the scope of the ratio of real trade volume to theoretical trade volume,we can analyze the trade efficiency between China and countries along the Belt and Road and confirm China's trade potential with the countries along the "Belt and Road".And based on the data in 2016,we analyze the impact of improving trade facilitation indicators on the improvement of potential trade.The sixth chapter is about conclusion and policy opinion,which summarizes the conclusion of this study,and proposes relevant policy recommendations from the four dimensions of trade facilitation.Based on the research,the main conclusions are concluded as follows:the trade facilitation of most countries along the "Belt and Road" are still at a relatively convenient level and general convenience level.Although China is the second-largest economic country in the world and the largest export country in the world at the same time.However,in 2012,the value of China's trade facilitation is 0.685 and its trade facilitation degree is generally convenient.In 2016,China's trade facilitation index value is 0.715 and trade facilitation degree is more convenient.It shows that the process of promoting China's trade facilitation still needs to be further promoted.There is still room for greater trade facilitation in countries along the Belt and Road.The empirical results show that trade facilitation plays the most important role in boosting the increase of export value from our countries to other countries in the one belt and one road.The trade facilitation levels of all countries along the "One Belt and One Road" increase by 1%,then the trade flows will increase by 1.24%.While the trade between our country and most of the countries along the "Belt and Road" are in trade potential.The potential for bilateral trade has not yet been fully released and there is still room for further development.By improving trade facilitation levels of countries along the "One Belt and One Road",it will be able to significantly enhance the trade efficiency of our countries along the Belt and Road and stimulate the trade potential of bilateral countries.By improving the level of trade facilitation of European countries along the Belt and Road,the efficiency of export trade is greater than that of improving Asian countries;the trade facilitation level in the general convenient areas is the best to enhance trade efficiency with the potential trade volume increasing by more than 8.7%;and the degree of trade facilitation is inconvenient and convenient of the potential trade growth rates are below 8.7%.Therefore,from the perspective of trade facilitation,there is still room for further development of the trade potential between our country and the countries along the "Belt and Road". |
