An Empirical Study Of Trade Potential And Influencing Factor Between China And “One Belt One Road” Countries

In 2013,President Xi Jinping has proposed to build a "Silk Road Economic Belt in twenty-first Century" and "maritime Silk Road" cooperation concept along with countries,the two ideas are called “One Belt One Road” strategy;in 2017,President Xi Jinping Proposed to write “One Belt One Road” into the party constitution of the communist party of China;in 2018,the state council premier Li Keqiang mentioned “One Belt One Road”5 times at the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.In the process of the strategy,how to base on the current situation to release trade potential,how to identify the factors hindering the trade efficiency are the most important to “Belt and Road Initiative” strategy.Specifically,what is the level of the trade efficiency and the trade potential between China and “Belt and Road Initiative strategy”? What factors are restricted to the realization of trade potential? What policy measures should China take to improve trade efficiency and ensure the realization of trade potential? This paper selects "The Belt and Road" along the 8 regions of 71 countries as samples,of which 68 countries carried out empirical analysis,tries to make a reasonable answer to the above three questions.Thinking about the introduce of the research background and significance,the article pay attention to the Influencing Factors of related research,also the research on trade potential trade potential.Beyond the own research ideas had been extracted from all above,the article pointed out the analysis method at the same time.On the basis of summarizing the relevant research ideas and research methods,this paper introduces and studies from the shallower to the deeper,the traditional trade gravity model,time-varying stochastic frontier model,then Stochastic frontier trade gravity model,and the model variables are divided into natural factors and human factors.Through the study,we found that the influence of the import and export trade trend is mainly affected by the international economic situation and domestic economic development situation,now the current world economic situation is not optimistic,"Belt and Road Initiative" strategy is very timely;at the same time,the trade volume increased year by year therefore.The implementation of "The Belt and Road" strategy of dividend policy,plays a more and more important role for the future development of trade.The article chooses the Frontier4.1 software to carry out an empirical study,according to the existing data.In the basic statistic test and the applicability of the model test,this paper use both non-considering the coefficients corresponding to variables obtained by stochastic frontier trade gravity model of trade barriers and considering the stochastic frontier gravity model of trade barriers,in order to analyze the influence factors on trade efficiency and trade potential;the article also lists the export trade efficiency list and export trade efficiency change list.The empirical study shows that the per capita GDP,population and geographic distance are important factors affecting China of The Belt and Road countries along the export trade,these factors affect the Chinese along the national export efficiency.In the future,they can be transformed into the export potential of actual efficiency.Traffic volume,tariffs,exchange rate and whether to sign free trade agreements play important role in export potential of actual efficiency.According to the descriptive statistics analysis and empirical analysis,the export trade efficiency between China and countries of Belt and Road Initiative is not high,and the score depend on every single country;Chinese contains large export trade potential level,through the corresponding strategic adjustment will effectively change the trade potential for trade efficiency,this paper summarizes four worth thinking direction.The first point is to accelerate free trade negotiations;the second point is to improve the logistics conditions,accelerate infrastructure construction;the third point is to maintain a stable exchange rate,adjust tariff position;Fourth,to adjust measures to local conditions.