Research On Chinese Credit Bond Default Risk And Early Warning

With the development of China’s bond market,the bond as a direct financing tool has become increasingly important.By the end of 2018,the stock of custody in China’s bond market reached 85.19 trillion yuan.Credit bonds have the advantages of high yield and strong liquidity,and are widely welcomed by investors.However,in recent years,our country’s bond market has broken the myth of “rigid payment”,the risk of default of credit bonds has become increasingly prominent.Therefore,it is significant to carry out the research on the risk of default of credit bonds and its early warning.This paper combines empirical research with case analysis,not only through the establishment of a credit bond default risk warning model,quantitatively warn bond default risk,but also combine with specific cases,combine quantitative and qualitative factors to analyse bond default risk,establish a bond default risk warning system.First of all,this paper combs out the current situation of default of credit bonds in China,showing the necessity of the study on default risk warning of credit bonds.Then,we screen out the warning factors for debt default risk that can be quantitatively analyzed,use dual Logic regression model as a default risk measurement model,and select 96 default samples from the credit bonds that default in 2018,according to the size of the assets and similar industry distribution.standard,The 96 normal bond samples were matched.Both samples used 2017 financial data.Next,do a sample description,and do a non-parameter test,select a significant difference in the default risk warning factors between the two groups of samples,as an independent variable of the early warning model,and use the bond default or not as the dependent variable to do binary Logic regression analysis.The relationship between bond default probability and risk warning variables is established,as a credit bond default risk warning model,and interpret the obtained model,reselect two sets of samples to do empirical testing,complete the empirical study of credit bond default risk warning.Finally,we make quantitative and qualitative comprehensive analysis of the default risk of Zhonghong Holdings bonds to better warn the default risk of bonds.Based on the above research,this paper establishes a warning system of default risk of credit bonds from both quantitative and qualitative aspects.