Research On Corporate Bond Default Warnings

With the rapid development of China's bond market,bonds have become one of the more important financing methods in the economic market.At this stage,the domestic economy has entered a new normal.The bond market has broken the "strange circle" of rigid payments.Default events have frequently occurred.The issuers of debt have spread from private enterprises to state-owned enterprises.The types of default bonds have involved all types of credit bonds.High penalties not only cause concern in all sectors of society,but also cause fear to investors.The substantial default of bonds has caused the company to fall into a financial crisis and caused huge losses to investors.Based on the above background,this paper establishes a comprehensive and systematic early warning framework for bond defaults by combining default distance,financial and non-financial indicators,so that companies can identify risks early,take effective measures to prevent and control default risks,and avoid falling into financial crisis,and investors can recognize early To the change in default risk to make the right decision.This paper first introduces the KMV model to measure the risk of new bond defaulting companies in 2018.The measurement model from the perspective of default distance can dynamically and timely reflect the size of the default risk and shows a good early warning ability.However,the default distance can only measure the magnitude of the default risk,and cannot deeply investigate the reasons for bond default.In order to improve the accuracy of the early warning framework,in-depth analysis must be conducted from the causes and causes.This article summarizes the non-financial and non-financial factors such as the macroeconomic situation,industry development trends,and corporate business planning.And analysis,explore the main factors of corporate bond defaults,and select early-warning indicators that are sensitive to the risk of default.Through induction and analysis,this paper combines default distance and bond default sensitivity early warning indicators to establish a comprehensive bond default warning framework,and selects Kaidi Ecology as the case of this paper for early warning analysis.The results show that the bond default warning framework is forward-looking and effective.Not only can it reveal the size of the default risk of an enterprise,but it can also help the company recognize the source of the default risk and take measures to control the risk from the root cause.In addition,this article also compares the calculation results of the KMV model with the rating agency 's eco-credit rating over the same period.Through comparison,it is found that the early warning of corporate default risks is lagging,and the credit rating results are falsely high,so it proves again to establish a refined early warning framework Necessity.Finally,conclusions and enlightenments are drawn from the study of bond default warning.The research findings in this paper are as follows: First,the default distance can effectively measure the default risk and can be used as one of the early warning indicators ofbond default risk.Secondly,from a non-financial perspective,the occurrence of bond defaults by companies is directly affected by external environmental factors such as macro and industry.At the same time,strategic planning at the corporate governance level is unreasonable,internal governance is chaotic,and adverse effects of major shareholders are also important factors that cause bond defaults.Factors,and these factors can qualitatively determine the magnitude of a company's default risk and can be used as early warning indicators.Third,from a financial perspective,the comprehensive financial indicators Z value,cash ratio,interest coverage multiples,cash flow ratio,accounts receivable turnover ratio,total asset turnover ratio,ROA,ROE and other indicators for early warning of corporate bond default risk Strong ability.Fourth,the establishment of an early warning framework for corporate bond defaults and the establishment of early warning signs and thresholds in combination with the above-mentioned various sensitive indicators can help enterprises and investors to identify default risks early and make timely response strategies,which has a mitigating and improving bond market default phenomenon.important meaning.