Analysis Of Real Estate Corporate Bond Default Risk Based On Z-score Model

At present,our bond market has experienced more than 40 years of development,become one of the main ways of financing enterprises.With the increasing of bond market scale,the frequency of bond default is also increasing.In the environment of frequent bond defaults,the real estate industry is a relatively special group.After the promulgation of the "three red lines" policy in 2020,the financing risk of Chinese real estate enterprises has been reduced to a certain extent,providing enterprises with a complete fund supervision system,but at the same time,the real estate enterprises are restricted in obtaining new financing.Due to the introduction of this policy,the overall credit risk of the real estate industry has decreased.However,the real estate enterprises cannot use financing to expand their business scope in the short term,and the debts still need to rely on sales to repay,which will have a significant impact on the cash flow and business decisions of the real estate enterprises,so that the real estate enterprises face greater risk of default.In this context,this paper selects China Fortune Happiness,the first private listed company to default on its bonds after the introduction of the "New regulations",conducts an in-depth analysis of the company’s bond default event,including the in-depth analysis of the causes of bond default,finds out the corresponding risk control measures,and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.So to put forward the corresponding idea of control risk to the whole industry and even the whole market,this has important practical significance for promoting the healthy development of bond market in our country.The research idea of this paper is: first,the development background of the real estate industry and bond default situation are described,and the characteristics of the real estate industry debt default are summarized,in order to prepare the case subject bond default cause analysis.Secondly,from the macro level,the industry level,the enterprise’s own level to analyze the reasons for the bond default of China Fortune Happiness Company.Finally,from the perspective of enterprises themselves,real estate industry,investors and supervision,put forward the corresponding countermeasures,to promote the development of our capital market.Through the case analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: First,the management decision-making level of China Fortune Happiness is the main cause of default.The PPP business model of CFLD occupies a large amount of receivables,investment concentration leads to poor risk resistance ability,and aggressive strategic planning leads to blind investment;Second,corporate debt with interest is too high,the debt repayment pressure is great,the bond maturity is concentrated,and the lack of corresponding liquidity funds,the maturity mismatch is serious.Third,enterprises still increase financing in the face of financial constraints,increasing the debt repayment pressure of enterprises without risk control,and eventually resulting in bond default.On the basis of this,this paper puts forward several suggestions to the bond credit risks of listed companies in our country: China Fortune Happiness should,according to the actual situation,optimize the PPP model,diversify the investment distribution,choose the appropriate financing strategy,and optimize the debt term structure;Real estate enterprises should actively adapt to the policy environment,slow down the speed of enterprise expansion,improve the quality of operation;Investors should enhance their awareness of risk prevention,improve their ability to distinguish risks,and safeguard their legitimate rights and interests.Regulators should strengthen the financing constraints of enterprises,strengthen the management of information disclosure,strengthen the management of rating agencies,and guard against bond credit risks.