Research On Default Risk Early Warning Of High-rated Bonds Of State-owned Enterprises Under The Failure Of Implicit Guarantee

The occurrence of the “11 Chaotic debt” default in 2014 marked the beginning of the invalidation of the "hidden guarantee" in China’s credit bond market.Due to the special status of state-owned enterprises in China.State-owned enterprises are often regarded by the local government as a symbol of high credit,which makes it easier for state-owned enterprises to obtain lower credit spreads in the bond issuance and higher credit ratings in the credit rating process.However,in recent years,the government’s implicit guarantee has gradually failed,and the risk of some well-run state-owned enterprise bonds has gradually been exposed.According to Wind statistics,between 2015 and 2022,in terms of the scale of credit debt defaults of Chinese enterprises,the bond default scale of state-owned enterprises has increased,and the effectiveness of credit rating is low in warning the default risk of enterprises,especially the default risk of state-owned enterprise bonds with AAA high ratings.In order to effectively warn of the occurrence of corporate bond default,it is necessary to build a risk warning model within the enterprise to prevent the risk of bond default.First of all,this paper analyzes the background of state-owned enterprises’ construction of a bond default risk warning system.By sorting out literature on the impact of hidden guarantees on enterprises,it is found that scholars generally believe that if the hidden guarantee fails,the risk of default of some poorly operated state-owned enterprises’ bonds is released.Combined with the combing of literature on the early warning method of bond default risk and the research on the prevention of corporate bond default risk,it is found that under the background of hidden guarantee failure,state-owned enterprises themselves build a bond default risk early warning model,which is an effective means to prevent the risk of enterprise default.In addition,this article defines the core concepts and relevant theoretical foundations of relevant research content,laying a theoretical foundation for the research of this article.Secondly,on the basis of literature research and theoretical analysis at home and abroad,the macro-environmental indicators that are sensitive to the default performance of early warning bonds are selected,and the internal factor indicators of the enterprise are selected in combination with the Enterprise Performance Evaluation Standard Value issued by the SASAC,and the internal and external factor indicators are selected to jointly build the indicator framework of the early warning in the construction of the risk early warning model,the paper uses the random forest algorithm to initially screen the risk early warning index,determine the weight of the index by the entropy value method,and the improved efficacy coefficient method to measure the risk of corporate bond default.Finally,the Founder Group carried out the application verification of the bond default risk warning model.Through the analysis of the sub-items of the early warning results,it is found that the main reasons for the bond default of Founder Group due to its poor operation,excessive diversification and poor performance of its subsidiaries,and the trough of the industry cycle.The model application verification results show that the bond default risk early warning model constructed in this article can send a signal before the credit rating to warn the occurrence of Founder Group’s bond default.In addition,this paper also puts forward suggestions on the method of default risk of state-owned enterprises under the background of hidden guarantee failure.The bond default risk early warning model constructed in this paper has certain reference significance for other enterprises of the same type.