Research On The Relationship Between Bank Credit And House Price In China From The Perspective Of Price Stratification

Real estate is closely related to people's life and production.It is an important issue of people's livelihood and plays an important role in the national economy.As a capital-intensive industry,whether the real estate credit is sufficient will directly affect the fluctuation of house prices.The fluctuation of house prices not only affects the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market,but also affects people's expectation of future house prices and rents,which in turn affects the demand for real estate credit.At the same time,the relationship between the scale of real estate credit in China and the fluctuation of real estate prices may be affected by the imbalance of regional development and the continuous differentiation of real estate price levels.So,what is the dynamic relationship between real estate credit and house prices? And does it have heterogeneous effects on different price levels? This paper will verify these two problems one by one through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.This paper reviews the related literatures on bank credit and housing prices,comprehensively sorts out the basic situation of the real estate market and the real estate investment market boom cycle,analyzes the influencing mechanism between the two,and the relationship between the price and the heterogeneous effect of price stratification mechanism.On this basis,it selects the national quarterly data from the fourth quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2018 and the annual data of the key cities from 2005 to 2016,and further divides these cities into first-class cities and second-class cities of different price levels through cluster analysis.The VAR model of the national time series data is constructed and the dynamic correlation and influence degree between bank credit and commercial housing price are empirically tested by using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method;and the GMM model of the panel data of the key cities is constructed,based on which thedynamic correlation between the two is analyzed.The results show that the increase of national housing price promotes the expansion of bank credit scale,Different research samples have the price stratification effect concerning the relationship between bank credit and house price fluctuations.Considering all of these,this paper comes up with five proposals,adapting the measures to local conditions while implementing existing credit policies,improving internal risk prevention and external supervision of commercial banks,broadening financing channels for market participants in real estate industry,strengthening public opinion guidance and market expectation management,and standardizing the construction of real estate market system.