A Study On The Impact Of Bank Credit On House Price Fluctuation In China Based On The Panel Data Of 2000-2015

With the gradual development of the real estate market,the link between the real estate and the macroeconomic is becoming closer.So is the relationship between the real estate and the residents' personal life.As an industry with a large demand for funds,financial support is essential at developing and selling phase.In China's financial system,banks take an important position.So it is self-evident that the bank credit support is of great importance to the real estate industry.According to the data published by the People's Bank of China,the real estate loan accounts for about 40% of the total new bank loans in the first quarter on March 31,2017.The real estate can be influenced by making a loan and the interaction between the fluctuations of house prices and the real estate industry can also be achieved under the action of the market mechanism,which has an important impact on the entire economic system.Therefore,it is significant to study the impact of bank credit on house price and the mechanism of action.In this paper,the tax of the real estate,the resident's income,the lagged house price,the five-year interest of loan are introduced into the model when analyzing the effect of bank credit on house price and 30 provinces(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)are set as the main research samples.By using the panel data from 2000 to 2015 and analyzing it,the impact of China's bank credit on house price fluctuations can be achieved.After that,a deeper analysis of the fluctuation of house price of the three regions-the eastern,midland and western China has been made.And the following conclusions and suggestions are drawn:First,on the whole,the bank credit has a positive effect on the fluctuation of house price in China and the three regions are also the case.But there are specific differences among the three regions in the degree of this role.What's more,it is a remarkable fact that the performance of the midland is most obvious.So differentiated credit policies should be implemented rationally;Second,as an important factor which is elaborated in this paper,the tax of the real estate has a reverse acting to house price,but the role is not significant in the overall and local areas.For the eastern region,the relationship between the property tax and house price proves to be positive.So tax policy should be used prudently;Third,the lagged house price which is introduced as a measure of the expected factor in the whole as well as the local areas has a significantly positive correlation,indicating that the current house is deeply impacted by the investment needs of residents.Therefore,the investment demand should be effectively guided.The framework of this article is arranged as follows:The first chapter is introduction.It mainly expounds the background and significance of the research,literature review,research contents and methods and points out the potential innovation and the shortcomings of this paper;The second is the concept and the theoretical basis.This chapter first defines the concept of real estate price and bank credit,and then gives a brief description of the two main theories of Tobin q and the Wealth Effect;The third studies on the impact mechanism of bank credit on house price.As a commodity,the real estate meets the market economy in the price law.This chapter analyzes the impact of bank credit on real estate through the two channels-supply and demand.Then,divide the demand into two categories-consumer and investment needs and give the corresponding explanation combined with the previous theory and the reality of China's real estate;The fourth is to explain the research design and the model establishment.This chapter focuses on the data source and sample selection in the empirical model and then analyze the introduction of the main control variables.Finally give the corresponding introduction to the model setting and the prior correlation test;The fifth is the research on the dynamic panel of China 's bank credit on house price.By introducing the variables of house price,bank credit scale,lagged house price,the property tax,the per capita disposable income,the medium and long term loan interest rate,the dynamic analysis of the panel data is made empirically.Based on the analysis of the overall panel results,the whole country is divided into three regions: the eastern,mid and the western according to the economic situation of the provinces and cities,and then a further study on the specific differences of these regions is made;The last is the conclusion and related recommendation.Based on the previous research,this chapter focuses on the corresponding suggestions to promote the steady development of real estate and bank credit in China.