An Empirical Study On The Relationship Between House Price And Bank Credit In China

In 1998,the market-oriented reform of real estate was initiated.With the reform dividend,the real estate market also developed rapidly and became one of the pillar industries of China's economic development.But at the same time,the surge of housing prices will lead to the problem of unstable supply and demand in the real estate market,or will become the hidden danger of sustained economic growth in China.In order to prevent evolution in China of lessons from Japan's real estate bubble crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States,our government is also actively making relevant policies to intervene in the real estate market to guide the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market.Credit policy is one of the important tools for our government to intervene in the real estate market,and bank credit is an important part of the source of real estate development funds.Therefore,this paper studies the relationship between housing prices and bank credit,which has a strong practical significance for promoting the healthy development of the real estate market.In the part of literature review and development status,this paper firstly summarizes the domestic and foreign literature,including theoretical research,empirical research,one-way guiding relationship between house price and bank credit,and the interaction relationship between house price and bank credit.Then it analyses the current situation of real estate and bank credit from the aspects of real estate policy,real estate development and sales,fluctuation of house price and bank credit policy.In the theoretical part of the article,the interaction mechanism between house price fluctuation and bank credit is analyzed.It is described from two dimensions: the one-way effect of house price fluctuation on credit and the one-way effect of bank credit on house price.In the theoretical part,it is believed that in the process of the transmission mechanism of credit to house price,increasing credit to real estate enterprises will give impetus to house price upward and downward,while increasing credit to buyers only has a positive effect on housing prices;in the process of transmission mechanism of housing prices to credit,from the perspective of real estate enterprises,the increase of housing prices will promote the increase of housing enterprises' credit,while for different types of consumers,the increase of housing prices has a two-way effect on credit.In the part of model construction,the text collects the quarterly data of 2000-2017 and the annual data of 31 provinces and cities from 2005 to 2017,sets variables including house price,bank credit,per capita GDP representing the economic fundamentals,real estate expected return rate and so on,and tries to analyze the relationship between house price and credit by establishing two models.Firstly,the VAR model is established to analyze the interaction between house price and bank credit,and impulse response and variance decomposition are carried out for the specific size and depth of the impact.Secondly,a dynamic panel model is established to analyze the relationship between house price and bank credit,and GMM method is used to analyze the relationship from four dimensions: the whole country,the east,the middle and the west.Research shows: 1.There is a causal relationship between housing price and credit.2.Eastern China is the key area to avoid big fluctuations in house prices,so we should focus on controlling the scale of credit in eastern China.3.The western region is the key area to guide the flow of credit.It is advisable to guide more investment into infrastructure and real economy,etc.Finally,according to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the aspects of the unity of credit policy and housing price policy,the rationality of credit structure and systematic risk management and control,etc.