The Relation Between Commercial Bank Credit And Real Estate Price Fluctuation

With the development of real estate market,the proportion of real estate credit in the asset business of commercial banks in China is increasing.In the past 20 years,the shortage of bank credit and the real estate market has led to the rising trend of housing prices.If such a situation happens,both the credit market and the overall economy of China will be severely hit.This paper,by studying the long-term and short-term mechanism of real estate and bank credit and the transmission route,analyzes the effect of housing price and credit price stratification,which can further improve the relevant theories and provide important basis for the government to make decisions.Firstly,the theoretical basis between housing price and credit is systematically sorted out,and the literature and results at home and abroad are summarized.Secondly,it describes the development status of housing price and credit,analyzes the transmission mechanism between them theoretically,and studies the relationship between credit,housing price and other factors based on Carey.M’s land price model.Based on the ARDL model and the error adjustment model,adopt the macro monthly data of Zhejiang province from January 2005 to December 2018 to make the long and short term adjustment forecast of their correlation,and study the correlation between credit of financial institutions and housing price fluctuations.The dynamic panel data of the annual data of 11 prefectural cities from 2003 to 2018 were used to carry out the GMM forecast of price classification,and the relationship between commercial bank credit and housing price fluctuations was studied at different price levels.Finally studies the effects of a housing price fluctuations and business credit risk,to household credit as the breakthrough point,application from 2005 to 2018,11 of the relevant information of 17 cities,respectively,into the expected price and income,and cross terms of the credit income related research to establish the regression model on the empirical analysis,the conclusion and put forward policy Suggestions.The research findings are as follows:1.There is indeed a long-term and short-term correlation between housing price and bank credit;2.Cities with high housing prices have capital suction effect,and credit has the most significant impact on areas with high housing prices;The effect of income and expected income on the housing price at all levels is obvious,especially in areas with high housing price.3.The real estate price and expected housing price are important factors affecting the non-performing loans of banks;Household debt structure will also have an impact on bank risk;Actual income and expected income have negative and positive effects on bank defaults respectively.Based on the theoretical and empirical research results,combined with the situation in Zhejiang Province,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions:1.Develop differentiated housing credit policies;2.Real estate credit needs to be rationalized;3.Reasonably control credit scale and strengthen credit risk supervision and other measures.