Estimation And Influencing Factors Of Export Trade Benefits Of China’s Manufacturing Industry

With the deepening of global value chain and the complication of intermediate trade,there is an overestimation of export trade benefits caused by repeated cross-border intermediate trade in the scale of export trade.Therefore,this paper establishes an export trade benefit model based on value-added accounting method,and constructs SDA decomposition models for three parts of export added value of export trade benefits,respectively,for the period 2005-2014.The data of the world input-output table are used as samples to measure the scale of China’s manufacturing export trade interests and the influencing factors,and to analyze the current situation of China’s manufacturing export trade interests from three perspectives: the total level,the national level and the industry level.The results show that the total value of China’s manufacturing export trade is overestimated by about 25% due to the existence of foreign added value and pure repetitive added value in export products.The final value-added of export is affected by four factors: the structure effect of international product production technology,the effect of added value coefficient,the effect of trade dependence and the effect of final demand scale.Demand scale effect has the greatest impact;the decomposition of value added in intermediate trade is different from export trade in indirect consumption coefficient effect and indirect demand scale effect.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives: improving core technology,transforming trade structure,promoting industrial structure optimization and upgrading,and developing new trading partners.