The Impact Mechanism And Empirical Study Of China's Consumption Upgrade On Imports

Since the reform and opening up,China's economic growth mode has entered a "new era" of accelerating the conversion of old and new driving forces.Over the past 30 years,China's economic growth mode,mainly driven by export and investment,has been gradually transforming into a consumption-driven economy.In recent years,China's consumption field has been accelerating the upgrade.The total amount of consumption has been expanding,the supply of consumption has been optimized,the consumption environment has been improved and the content of consumption has become more diversified,which is forming a hierarchical,personalized,quality,diversification of the new consumption pattern.In order to give full play to the basic role of consumption to economic growth,in September 2018,the state council issued Some opinions on improving the consumption promotion system and mechanism to further stimulate residents' consumption potential,which pointed that “in line with the new trend of upgrading the quality of household consumption,we will actively cultivate consumer market segments in key areas,create a sound consumer environment in an all-round way,and constantly improve people's ability to consume".Under the promotion of national policies,with the deepening of international division of labor and cooperation,the fundamental role of consumption in China's and even the world's economic growth becomes more prominent.Consumption has become the leading force to maintain the steady growth of China's economy,and having a certain degree of effect on China's import trade.This paper defines the connotation of consumption upgrade as upgrade of consumption level,the upgrade of consumption structure and upgrade of consumption environment.The index evaluation system of consumption upgrade is constructed based on principal component analysis(PCA).On the basis of the macro grasp the overall situation of China's consumption upgrade,we select relatively reasonable primary index and secondary index.The consumption upgrading index of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2013 was calculated based on the weight of income,and refined to the primary index data for further empirical test.In the empirical process,according to the BEC classification method,the impact of consumption upgrading on the total imports of final consumer goods,intermediate goods and capital goods is analyzed.At the same time,according to the elasticity of demand income,the imported products in customs import data are divided into high-grade products and necessities.The GMM model was established to empirically examine the impact of China's consumption upgrade on product imports under different taxonomy.Combining theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper draws the following main results: first,the overall level of China's consumption upgrade needs to be improved,and the unbalanced development of regional consumption upgrade is still a key issue that needs attention;second,through the regression results of the GMM model,it is concluded that China's consumption upgrade promotes the import of final consumer goods,domestic consumers have strong demand for imported consumer goods;third,China's consumption upgrade has significantly promoted the import of intermediate goods and capital goods,domestic enterprises Accelerate the transformation and upgrading;Fourth,the impact of consumption upgrade on the import of products with different income elasticity of demand is different,the import of high-end products increases,and the import of essential goods decreases.Fifth,in the analysis of the first-level indicators,the improvement of consumption levels is significant.It has promoted the increase of China's total import volume,With the improvement of the consumption structure and consumption environment,consumers will increase their import consumption demand for high-end products and reduce the demand for essential goods.Sixth,the consumption upgrade has generally promoted.Consumer demand for imported consumer goods in various regions of China.However,there is regional heterogeneity,and the effects of the eastern and central regions are more significant than those in the western region.Consumer demand for high-end goods in the eastern region has increased significantly with the increase in the consumption upgrade index,which fully demonstrates the huge potential of the high-end consumer market in eastern China.On the basis of the conclusion,the article puts forward relevant policy recommendations on how to improve the level of China's consumption upgrade,enhance the diversification level of domestic products and expand the supply of domestic high-end products.