Research On The Time-varying Impacts Of Import And Export On Economic Growth

Since Adam Smith put forward the division of labor theory, economists holddifferent opinions about the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth.There are three views which have great influence. The first is optimistic that thinkstrade is the engineer of economic growth. The second is pessimistic that thinks tradeis the resistance of economic growth. The third is s-type that thinks trade is just "themaid of growth ". Therefore, we can not come to the conclusion that whether tradecan promote economic growth. International trade which was based the detaileddeepening division of labor has become an important source of economicdevelopment with the rapid development of transaction technology, at the age ofinformation. Under the conditions of given quantity of resources, a country shouldchoose an appropriate trade structure to realize the optimal economic growth path.The dynamic evolution of trade structure is of more important significance fordeveloping countries. In recent years, China has got remarkable achievements. Alongwith the continuing growth of trade and the diversity of trade partners, import andexport trade conditions and commodity structure are obviously improved. Therefore,under the condition of trade situation and structure’s changing, import and exporttrade has an inevitable time-varying influence on Chinese economic growth. In thetime-varying framework, reconsidering the influence of import and export oneconomic growth, not only helps to understand the pulling effect of trade on economicgrowth, but also can provide some useful experience and policy implications forfurther optimization of trade structure reference.China and Japan, as one of the most influential countries in northeast Asia, play adecisive role in the development of regional trade and provide a strong motivation forregional economic growth. This paper applies the time-varying model to analyze themechanism of bilateral trade’s impact on economic growth based on the trade betweenChina and Japan, We come to the conclusion that the influence of bilateral tradebetween the two countries on the economic growth exists obvious time-varying characteristics. In recent years, import to Japan plays an important role in promotingChina’s economic growth, export to Japan begins to weaken it. In addition, export topromote Japan economic growth has weakened obviously. Finally, based on theeconomic cycle entrainment and commodity structure, we work hard to find out thecause that influence of bilateral trade on economic growth changes.In order to further explore the contribution to economic growth in China’sevolving trade structure, this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution path and thecharacteristics of the trade structure in Chapter4, in addition, a statistical analysis ofChina’s trade structure is made on the basis of trade goods classification. According tothe classification of HS, we classify goods into three categories: the low, secondary,high industry. We apply TVP-VAR model to analyze the categories of goods importand export of time-varying effect on our country economy. It shows that the influenceof low technology industry on our country’s economy changed from positive tonegative; the import of secondary industry on our country’s economy is disappearinggradually, China is facing the "middle-income trap", which is both challenge andopportunity. The inhibition of secondary industry on our country economic growth isespecially striking. In recent years, the import of high industry has played animportant role on the promotion of our country’s economy that has maintained at ahigher level. The comparative advantage of high technology industry is increasinglyreflected in the export. Although import of three categories has different contributionto China’s economic, but is conducive to China’s economic growth taken together.The change of export structure has a significant asymmetric effect on economicgrowth. Finally，this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to speedup China’s trade structure upgrade according to the results of empirical analysis.