Demand Forecast And Order Placement Improvement For Supply Chain Quick Response

Based on the package manufacturers located in both China and Vietnam,X company's animal food package supply chain is a high efficiency supply chain.As the purchased volume and items increased,the potential problems come out in the daily operation process.Some “Long lead time raw material” products can't satisfy customer orders' quick response requirement,while the manufacturers still keep the traditional“Purchase orders received,then order the raw material”production operation process without customer demand forecast model and raw material order placement management strategy under customer's demand forecast.Based on X company's animal food package supply chain management,the paper analyses the current situation of the animal food package supply chain,discusses how to build up sale's forecast model,improves the purchase order placing strategy and build up safety stock for the long lead time raw material to improve the supply chain quick response ability to match customer's quick response requirement.Forecast is the foundation of production operation process decision.Only building up proper sale's forecast model could provide accurate information for the coming low slip BOPP orders placing strategy.Based on the collected monthly customer demand datum from 2011 to 2015 for low slip BOPP package,the paper builds up Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to predict the coming month's customer demand,builds up optimized purchase order place strategy and sets up safety stock under traditional inventory management study and package industry attribute for low slip BOPP,Eventually,improves the supplier's low slip BOPP purchase process management to strengthen the supplier's quick response customer demand performance.