Research On Spatial Pattern And Its Influencing Factors Of Shrinking Cities In Hubei Province

Since the 21 st century,with the general slowdown of global economic growth,shrinking cities with the decline of population size as the core feature have appeared frequently all over the world,domestic and foreign research on the issue of shrinking cities is also in full swing.At present,China is in the process of rapid urbanization,regional population and spatial pattern has undergone great changes.Under the appearance of the rapid expansion of the city as a whole,the local areas also show the shrinkage of the city,which brings a series of problems such as the shortage of human resources,the crisis of public finance and the increase of vacant buildings to the city,and has a considerable impact on the development of the city.Therefore,targeted identification of shrinking cities and in-depth analysis of their spatial pattern and influencing factors can not only meet the urgent need to solve the problem of shrinking cities,but also have certain theoretical significance for the healthy development of Chinese cities.Hubei Province,as an important development area in the rise of the central region and the Yangtze River Economic Belt,is an important part of Chinese economy and a carrier for the transfer of industries from the eastern coastal areas to the central and western regions.This complex background of economic development makes the population of Hubei Province to be complexity and typicality in spatial distribution The research on the shrinking cities in Hubei province can not only fill the gap of the related research on shrinking cities in central China at the provincial level,but also have important practical significance for the Hubei provincial government to formulate a reasonable development plan and realize regional coordinated development.In terms of the identification of shrinking cities and the analysis of the current situation,this research uses the resident population data from 2009 to 2016,and takes 76 cities,counties and districts in Hubei province as the research object,to carry out an all-round calculation and analysis of the basic characteristics,spatial pattern and type division of the shrinking cities.The results show that:(1)The number of cities in Hubei province under the state of significant shrinkage is large and serious.(2)The difference between shrinkage quantity and shrinkage degree is obvious in different levels of cities,shrinkage quantity and shrinkage degree of the prefecture-level cities are small and slight;Shrinkage problem of the county level cities are prominent,and 33 areas in 64 counties(cities)appear shrinkage phenomenon,the proportion reaches 51.56%.(3)From the perspective of spatial pattern,shrinking cities are mainly concentrated in the northwest,southwest,northeast and central north-south longitudinal areas of Hubei province;The tendency of expanding the city to the central area with Wuhan as the core is obvious.On the whole,it presents a trend of “peripheral shrinkage,central growth and accompanied by local shrinkage”.(4)According to the main causes of shrinking cities,shrinking cities in Hubei province can be divided into three types: such as lagging shrinkage of economic development,siphon shrinkage around large cities,and policy intervention type.In terms of influence factors of shrinking cities,this research draws on the relevant studies of domestic and foreign scholars,and constructs a theoretical model of influencing factors of shrinking cities based on population factors,economic factors,fiscal and financial factors,fixed assets investment factors,industrial structure factors and city level factors.According to the cities shrink or not and the city level,the research areas will be divided into four categories,and the effects and strengths of each influencing factors on the formation of shrinking cities are analyzed one by one.The main results show that:(1)Resident population and GDP scale are the primary factors affecting the formation of shrinking cities.(2)The higher the city level,the stronger the attraction to the population and the lower the probability of forming a shrinking city.(3)The effects of the three industries on the formation of shrinking cities are different and have strong regularity,among which the primary industry index contributes significantly to the formation of shrinking cities,and the ratio index of secondary industry is a significant obstacle to the formation of shrinking cities in economically underdeveloped areas,and the proportion of tertiary industries is significantly hindering the formation of shrinking cities in economically developed areas.(4)In terms of fiscal and financial factors,financial loans and fiscal revenue indicators prevent cities in developed regions from entering a state of shrinkage;The indicators of fiscal expenditure and savings deposit have a stronger effect on the formation of shrinking cities in less developed areas.(5)Fixed asset investment has a weak effect on the formation of shrinking cities.In order to help the shrinking cities in Hubei province solve the shrinking problem,this research puts forward the following four suggestions :(1)Rejudge the size of the population that can be accommodated in the city,and explore the planning mode suitable for the shrinking city development.(2)Pay attention to the coordinated development of regions and vigorously promote the construction of metropolitan circle and urban agglomeration.(3)Analyze the specific causes of shrinking cities,and make targeted measures accordingly.(4)Strengthen financial support and fiscal expenditure,and reasonably improve industrial structure of cities.