Risk Analysis Of Product Development Project Of H Company Based On Bayesian Network

Product research and development is very important for enterprises.Because there are many uncertain factors and unforeseeable negative influence factors in product research and development projects,enterprises must do a good job in the risk management of product research and development projects in order to improve the quality of product research and development projects.Compared with many project risk management methods,Bayesian network has powerful functions such as prediction,diagnosis,and cause analysis.Bayesian network combines intuition with data,not only makes the risk factors of the whole project more clear,intuitive and systematic display,but also achieves the purpose of dynamic monitoring of the whole project and timely adjustment of risk management strategy.Based on the advantages and characteristics of Bayesian network,combined with project risk management and Bayesian network risk management related knowledge.This paper takes the product research and development projects of H company as the research object and applies Bayesian network risk management to the risk management of product research and development projects of company H.The main ones are as follows:(1)After analyzing the current situation of H company’s product R & D project risk management,we find out the existing problems.The flow chart method is used to identify the risk,and the main risk factors are obtained.The causality of each risk factor is analyzed in tabular form,and the whole Bayesian network structure is established.(2)In order to facilitate the project termination risk,project quality risk,project cost risk,project schedule risk four indicators are analyzed one by one,the overall Bayesian network structure is decomposed into four sub-structures.Based on the statistic data of the past 15 projects,the conditional probability distribution table is obtained by experience judgment,and the probabilistic data of each node of Bayesian network are obtained by using the full probability formula.Thus the whole Bayesian network model of product R&D project risk of H Company is obtained.(3)The Bayesian network model is used to evaluate and analyze the risk of R&D project of H company.The risk factors and the probabilities of four indicators are obtained,and the results are analyzed and discussed.By using Bayesian network model,the probability of project risk occurrence can be predicted more accurately,and the subsequent risk can be dynamically monitored in the process of project implementation,so as to improve the quality of project completion.The Bayesian network risk management method is applied to the risk management of product R&D projects of company H to achieve the purpose of quantitative evaluation,dynamic monitoring and management of project risks.At the same time,it can also be used as a reference for other projects of the company and even other companies ’project risk management.