Study On Electricity Engineering Project Risk Management On Bayesian Network

As economic structure is changing constantly, the uncertainty that the electric project is being involved will increase day by day, the influence factors are intricate too, and the severity of the consequence that each risk factor causes is different. If not consider these risk factors or neglect the main factor among them, will cause the fault of the project, will face the enormous risks. Should carry on electric project development, the objective of the time limit for a project, cost goal are two great important goals of project management, so carry on effective risk management to the time limit and cost imperatively.On the foundation that this text reads in the literature and investigates actually, the studying of materials correlated with specific and independent risk administration behaviour, etc. through the whole risk management of a large number of projects, having explained the risk in project time limit emphatically, the impact on electric project of the cost risk, and Bayesian Network method introduce project of getting of the risk management then. Probability relation of the network describes to the diagram, form a directed acyclic graph, to the scarce question of the historical data in the risk management of the electric project, effectively. Thus can analyze that it influences the key factor of the risk to arrange in an order to obtain through scene analysis and cause and effect, carry on effective risk management.Article take place uncertainty of electric project risk mainly, utilizing the uncertain analytical method, substitute the deterministic analytical method to risk manage, guarantee the harmony process of project. It constructs risk Bayesian network model then, carry on the risk management of project: Discern to the risk factors of the project, confirm the nodal content of the network at first; Secondly appraise to the risk factor discerned, confirming the nodal relation of the network, and construct the risk Bayesian network;Carry on the risk assessment, through determining the nature, quantitative analytical method that combine together again, assign through probability, carry on network deduce, must produce possibility that risk take place finally then Because of the characteristic of the project, complicated and irreversible, the above three steps can go on alternately, repeated finishes the construction of the network finally. At all, introduce Bayesian network theory, get project risk management into research for feasibility, and have important realistic meanings at the same time.