| The energy and mineral resources are rich in the energy rich areas of Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Mongolia.For many years the region rely on energy mineral resources,realizes the high speed development of economy,at the same time,the area industry gradually formed a similar pattern of industrial structure,fierce competition between each other,the resulting damage to resources predatory mining and so on has severely damaged the ecological environment of energy development zone,the final damage or energy enrichment region for the long-term development of the whole benefit.County economy is an important basic carrier of the entire national economy.When industrial isomorphism occurs in the county,its direct impact is the reduction of economic benefits,overcapacity,resulting in a large amount of resource waste and environmental pollution,which has a negative impact on the reasonable and sustainable development of the entire national economy.Therefore,this paper quantifies the degree of industrial isomorphism from the regional,municipal and county scales,builds a system dynamics simulation model to simulate and predict the industrial structure adjustment plan of the county,providing theoretical support for solving the industrial isomorphism problem,optimizing industrial structure and promoting industrial upgrading in this region.The overall economic development and the evolution of the three industrial structures in the energy-rich areas since 2000 are analyzed from the perspective of time scale with statistical data.Secondly,using the improved industrial structure similarity coefficient method,which has certain advantages in measuring the degree of industrial isomorphism in many regions,the degree and trend of the isomorphism of three industries,industrial categories and specific industries in the energy rich areas are measured from different scales of regions,cities and counties.On this basis,a model of industrial structure adjustment in the energy-rich areas was established by system dynamics to simulate and predict the impact of industrial structure adjustment on economy,society,capital,energy and environment.Finally,shenmu county in Shanxi province is taken as an example to simulate three industrial development schemes,and based on this,countermeasures and suggestions for industrial restructuring in the county are put forward.Through this study,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Since 2000,the economic development level of the energy-rich areas in shaanxi,gansu,ningxia and Mongolia has been significantly improved.In 2017,the GDP,primary,secondary and tertiary industrial output values of this region were 25.50,6.86,28.47 and 30.98 times of that in 2000,respectively.The growth rate was significantly faster than the national average,and the growth rate of industrial added value exceeded the national average by 3.9 percentage points.This fully shows that the region is still full of vitality under the influence of a series of adverse economic development factors,and is an important support zone for China's future economic growth.In terms of industrial structure,the proportion of primary,secondary and tertiary industries has changed from 18.10:40.68:41.22 in 2000 to 9.56:43.64:46.80 in 2017.The industrial optimization and upgrading has been remarkable,with 7.6:40.5 nationwide.Compared to 51.9 shows the characteristics of obvious secundiparity strong,the tertiary industry is weak,in 2017,the third industry than the second industry,fully explain several energy source enrichment region is one of the important position,the industrial development of our country embodies the deep industry background,the development of the region industry to enrich the power of the second industry,makes the relative weight of the second industry over the third industry.(2)From the perspective of the energy rich areas in Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Mongolia as a whole,the average similarity coefficient of the three industrial structures from 2000 to 2017 reached 0.97911,indicating that the energy rich areas had serious industrial isomorphism at the level of the three industries.Starting from 2016,the similarity coefficient of industrial structure of the three times started to fall back to 0.97981 in 2017.but it was still higher than the average of previous years.Several energy source enrichment region industrial output mainly in mining,accounted for 50.51%,coal mining and washing industry in the mining industry in output value accounted for the largest,visible industry greatly depends on the region's rich mineral resources,development of resources industry,and at present is still in the primary development phase for energy,accordingly,in the manufacturing industry is also of high processing industry of oil,coal and other fuels and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and other primary energy processing sectors,Some emerging industries account for less than 1%of the manufacturing industry,which fully shows that resource-based industries in this region still occupy an absolute dominant advantage,and there is still a lot of room for the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.The similarity coefficient of the three major industrial sectors in the energy rich area is 0.93249,and the similarity coefficient of the 32 specific industrial sectors is 0.80377.It can be seen that although the degree of isomorphism of the three major industrial sectors in this area is relatively high,it is alleviated in the specific downstream industrial sectors.(3)From the perspective of municipal scale,the similarity coefficient of the three industrial structures between the cities in the energy-rich areas of shaanxi,gansu.ningxia and Mongolia during 2000-2017 was between 0.81 and 0.99.In 2017,the similarity coefficient of the two cities of yinchuan and erdos was the highest ever.This shows that the energy rich areas in shaanxi,gansu,ningxia and Mongolia have high degree of industrial isomorphism.Yulin,qingyang,ordos city,between the three industrial structure has been high similarity coefficient,yinchuan and other three industrial structure similarity coefficient between 3,2013 years ago has been in a low level,until the ningdong energy heavy chemical base of the completed and put into operation in 20]3,yinchuan also gradually took to the driven by energy industry regional economic growth path,with a dramatic increase in the similarity of industrial structure of other 3 city,yinchuan and ordos 2017 industrial structure similarity coefficient reached the highest,makes several energy source enrichment region between the area around the second industry and the competition intensified.Three categories from within the industry,qingyang isomorphism,ordos and yulin city level is relatively high,will continue to subdivided into 32 industrial specific industries,the regional industrial structure similarity coefficient are greatly reduced,visible on the choice of various cities in the concrete industry development direction can adjust according to the region,simlar degree is not high,but in ordos and yulin in 32 specific industry level,the degree of industrial isomorphism is significantly higher than other cities,to illustrate the two city industrial isomorphism problem not only in the aspect of industrial categories exist,but also in the industry within the specific industry is still not improved.(4)From the perspective of county scale,the similarity coefficient of the three industrial structures between two counties(cities,districts and banners)has fluctuated within the range of 0.86-0.99 since 2000,indicating that the degree of convergence of the three industrial structures is also at a high level within the county.Among them,the degree of industrial isomorphism between jungeer banner and shenmu city,lingwu and xifeng is always high.According to the data of 2012 and 2017,the degree of industrial isomorphism in the counties of the energy-rich areas of shaanxi,gansu,ningxia and Mongolia is decreasing,but the absolute value is still not low,and the problem of industrial isomorphism is still severe.From the perspective of three categories of industry,mining industry occupies an absolute dominant position in shenmu city and jungeer banner,especially as high as 81.73%in jungeer banner,while manufacturing industry occupies a relatively high proportion in xifeng district and lingwu city.The production and supply of electricity,heat,gas and water accounts for a relatively]ow proportion in the four counties,remaining at about 10%.The industrial development of the four counties is highly dependent on resource-intensive industries,with extensive industrial development mode and insufficient development of high-end manufacturing industry.From the perspective of the county industrial isomorphism of industrial three categories of degree,the results show that the highest industrial isomorphism of lingwu and xifeng area,followed by jungar banner and shenmu county,this is because the lingwu and xifeng district industrial development depend on the manufacturing industry,the jungar banner and shenmu county is depend on the mining industry,based on the energy mineral resources endowment of similar that they formed a very similar industrial structure.When the industry is further subdivided into 32,the similarity coefficient of industrial structure is greatly reduced,but the degree of isomorphism of jungeer banner and shenmu city is still significant,indicating that the industrial isomorphism of these two places not only exists in the level of industrial categories,but also deserves attention in each specific industry within the industry.(5)From the point of industry development of three kinds of scheme comparison,inaction solutions the predictive value of GDP in the three kinds of average,and area population amount,fixed assets investment,energy consumption and pollution situation is not ideal,is not conducted under the condition of industrial structure adjustment Shenmu county,neither green nor economy development according to the current development pattern has not,need some policy along with the social development and progress of the above change and adjustment;The predicted value of GDP in industrial structure adjustment plan 1 is at the highest level,which can realize the rapid development of GDP.and the situation of regional population,fixed asset investment energy consumption and total pollution is also at the average level.It can be seen that after certain policy guidance and industrial structure adjustment,shenmu county starts to develop well.Industrial structure adjustment scheme 2 is on the basis of the adjustment plan 1 continue to improve the efficiency of industrial technological progress rate,energy conversion,increased investment in environmental protection,science and technology investment,less energy policy influence,local protection policy.although did not reach the highest growth rate of GDP,but other each target area population amount,fixed assets investment,energy consumption and pollution are three kinds of the optimal solution.Along with our country economic development into the new normal,with resources and environment at the expense of GDP growth is not sustainable,so in this case,the shenmu city should choose scene 3 model of development,economic development must be based on the industrial structure optimization,production efficiency,reduce consumption and protect the environment,in order to avoid making the same mistakes treatment after pollution,green coordinate sustainable development. |
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