| The increasing trend of climate warming and drying has gradually affected all industries of production and life.Planting is one of the most vulnerable industries affected by climate change.This paper uses the meteorological data and crop related data of Shanxi Province for nearly 40 years to analyze the climate change trend and the development status of crop industry structure.The entropy method is used to calculate the comparative advantage of crops,and based on the basic data of planting industry in Shanxi Province in the past 10 years,The Cobb-Douglas production function,which introduces climatic factors,measures the contribution of each input factor to crop yield increase.On this basis,the climate superiority index and the dominant input factors of crops under climate change are obtained,combined with climate advantages and crop comparative advantages.In the crop production structure optimization strategy,according to the impact of input factors on crop yield under climate change,the factor input structure optimization strategy is proposed.Through research,the following conclusions are drawn:In the past 40 years,the overall temperature in Shanxi Province increased from 1978 to 2016,and decreased to a certain extent in the 21 st century.The overall precipitation showed a downward trend,contrary to the trend of slight increase in national precipitation.The proportion of primary industry in Shanxi Province is decreasing,fluctuating and developing unsteadily.In the planting industry,the planting of food crops is more and more inclined to corn,and the yield of wheat,soybean,potato and small grain has decreased to different degrees.There is a big difference in the input of production factors between the north and the south,and there is a certain imbalance.There are three main reasons for these problems: the loss of rural labor force;Planting infrastructure construction is not perfect;The effects of climate change are severe.Among them,the impacts of climate change on various crops vary in different regions,which will directly affect the existing crop production and factor input structure.On the whole,climate change is not conducive to the planting of wheat and soybean crops in most areas of Shanxi Province,but it is beneficial to the planting of corn crops.Potato planting is less affected by climate change.Small miscellaneous grain crops in north Shanxi are positively affected by climate change,while small miscellaneous grain crops in south Shanxi are negatively affected by climate change.Wheat fields under climate change inputs was positively to effect more,corn,potato against corn planting area production inputs,soyabean area labor and fertilizer inputs is not conducive to crop growth,the investment of small grain crops growing areas of farmland irrigation is conducive to crop growth,other inputs affect small or negative.On the basis of following the three principles of rationalization,advancedization and adaptation to climate change,the paper proposes optimization strategies for planting structure: adjusting the production structure of crop production,determining key development areas according to the comparative advantages of crops,large-scale operation,and strengthening investment in science and technology.Extend the industrial chain;adjust the input structure of planting factors,invest in production factors with relative comparative advantages according to different resource endowments in different regions,promote industrial specialization;adapt to climate change,adjust crop varieties according to the influence of climate factors in different regions And the scope of planting,strengthen the early warning of extreme weather disasters,and improve the ability of crop farming to adapt to climate change. |
