Research On Systematic Risk Analysis And Prevention Of Real Estate In China

China's real estate is an important pillar of the national economy.At the same time,there has always been a risk spill that threatens the national economy.For the first time,the 2017 National Financial Work Conference listed China's real estate as one of the most important systemic risks.This is because real estate risks are spilling into the most sensitive areas of finance,consumption,local economy,and real economy,which are closely related to the national economy,and have a high probability of forming a systemic risk.According to the People's Bank of China data,by the end of the first quarter of 2018,China's real estate loans accounted for about 27% of all loans of financial institutions.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,in the first half of 2019,real estate development investment accounted for 20% of national fixed asset investment;by the end of 2018,the balance of personal housing loans accounted for about 54% of total resident loans.Ministry of Finance data,local debt closely related to real estate,in 2018,the national local government debt balance of 18 trillion yuan,does not include "hidden" local government debt.From the analysis of the above data,China's real estate risk spillovers in terms of gdp ratio,fiscal revenue,credit scale,and residents' property security have profoundly affected the healthy development of China's national economy.Based on the perspective of effective prevention and control of real estate risk spillovers,this paper systematically explores the relevant theoretical and practical issues of real estate risk spillovers,focusing on the analysis,identification and threat of real estate risk spillovers,and proposes local strategy of effective prevention and control of real estate risk spillovers.