Estimation Of Real Estate Bubble And Local Fiscal Risk Analysis In Zhengzhou

China's economic development and the process of urbanization continue to accelerate the city's infrastructure,public services and urban management capacity of a huge challenge.To solve these problems,we need to increase urban construction efforts.The main source of funds for urban construction for the local finance,so to ensure the stability of local finance is conducive to sustainable development of urban construction.But the current local fiscal revenue on the real estate industry dependence is higher,once the real estate industry fluctuations,is bound to affect the stability of local finance,the issue has aroused widespread concern in the community.Based on the analysis of the impact of the real estate market on the local fiscal revenue mechanism,based on Zhengzhou City from 2000 to 2015,the annual time series data,the first estimate of the real estate bubble degree in Zhengzhou City,the measured results can be seen in 16 years in Zhengzhou City,the degree of real estate bubble in a safe range,the volatility of the general trend of the bubble from high to low From low to high cycle of the process,in line with Zhengzhou City,the general trend of the real estate market.On the basis of this,the paper analyzes the influence of real estate bubble degree on local fiscal revenue by constructing variable parameter model.The results show that the influence coefficient of real estate bubble degree on local fiscal revenue and real estate bubble degree in Zhengzhou is basically the same in most years,but the fluctuation range of influence coefficient is small,which shows that the real estate bubble degree of Zhengzhou real estate has A certain impact,but the impact is not obvious.This is mainly because the 16 years in Zhengzhou City,real estate bubble degree in the security range,the volatility trend is not enough to make a substantial change in fiscal revenue,but if the real estate bubble degree continues to increase,to a certain extent will eventually affect the local revenue stability.Therefore,this paper uses BP neural network to calculate the financial risk value of Zhengzhou City,and according to the selected indicators and real estate bubble risk warning nodes were designated Zhengzhou city financial risk warning interval,in order to detect risks and take measures to reduce the possibility of financial risks.Finally,on the basis of the previous analysis,we give the policy suggestions such as perfecting the urban construction financing system and the real estate tax system.