Research On The Two-way Risk Spillover Effects Of Real Estate And Related Industries

As the pillar industry of China's national economy,the real estate industry has always been called the "engine" of China's national economic growth.At the same time,the real estate industry has the characteristics of long industry chain,large capital requirements,and wide spread,and it is second to none for the national economy.When the national economic growth fluctuates,the real estate industry has always been a leading industry for government agencies to conduct macro-control.Because of the important position of the real estate industry in the national economy,there are numerous studies in the academic community about the real estate industry and its industry chain related industries.However,the research direction of the academic community is mainly focused on the correlation and driving effect of real estate and industry related industries,ignoring the risk association between the real estate industry and related industries.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the risk spillover effect between the real estate industry and industry-linked industry to prevent the systematic risk of the real estate industry,maintain the stability of the real estate industry,and maintain a healthy and stable development of the real estate industry,so as to ensure the healthy and steady development of the national economy.This article selects 13 industries including non-banking financial industry,steel industry,machinery and equipment industry,building decoration industry,banking industry,chemical industry,household appliances industry,construction materials industry,commercial trade industry,light industry manufacturing industry,electrical equipment industry,transportation industry and leisure service industry,as the main upstream and downstream industries in the real estate industry chain,With the Daily rate of return of the SWS Primary Industry Index as the research object,an ARMA-GARCH-Copula-CoVaR model based on the SGT probability density distribution was constructed.I measured the risk spillover intensity between the real estate industry and other industries and research shows:(1)The chemical industry has the highest risk spillover strength to the real estate industry,followed by the construction materials industry,machinery and equipment industry,and transportation industry.(2)In the ranking of the risk spillover intensity of the relevant industries to the real estate industry,the chemical industry is the highest,followed by the machinery equipment industry,the transportation industry and the commercial trade industry.(3)The risk spillover mtensity between related industries and the real estate industry has nothing to do with the upstream and downstream positions of the industry's industrial chain.