Research On China's Housing Vacancy Rate And Real Estate Financial Risk Based On The Spatial Spillover Effect

According to the data,China's housing vacancy rate reached 22%-26%in 2015,and the vacancy rate still exceeds 20%.According to the international standard,the vacancy rate of more than 10%is equivalent to entering a dangerous area,that is,according to the average value,The problem of vacant housing in our country has become more prominent.The financial industry plays a role in financing the real estate market.In the context of the relatively developed indirect financing market in China,the proportion of banks in the source of funds for real estate is large.The hidden financial risks in the close relationship between the two are not only inhibited.The development of the real estate industry will even affect the stable development of our economy.Against the backdrop of rising vacancies in housing,there is a long way to go to realize sustainable growth without a financial crisis.The definition of vacancy rate and the corresponding calculation methods have different opinions at home and abroad.This paper uses the ratio of vacant areas of commercial housing in China to the completed area of commercial housing in the past three years to calculate the vacancy rate of housing.The housing supply,housing demand and national macroeconomic policies will affect Housing vacancy rate,a certain degree of reasonable vacancy rate is conducive to the stable development of the real estate market.The types of real estate financial risks are divided into six types:systematic risks and credit risks.Financing instruments and channels,legal provisions and other factors will affect the real estate financial risks.Joining the expected real estate prices and credit expansion will play an important role in the process where housing vacancy rates affect real estate finance risk.Relevant data show that China's housing vacancy rate and housing vacant area have been rising year by year,and the rapid changes in real estate policies,real estate prices,and real estate loan balances have caused China's real estate financial risks to gradually accumulate.The introduction of the econometric model can quantitatively analyze the relationship between the two.The results of the classic panel model show that the increase in housing vacancy rate will increase the real estate financial risk,and its degree of impact on financial risk is reflected in the western>central>eastern.We focuse on the impact of housing vacancy rate on real estate financial risk based on spatial effects.Both Moran index and Kirill index support the existence of spatial effects.The Moran index has been declining since 2009.Based on the above analysis,SAR and SEM models are further established for analysis.The results of LM test show that the SAR model is better than the SEM model.Under the background of the three spatial weight matrixes,the coefficients of spatial correlation coefficient and housing vacancy rate are at least 5%significant.The level of sexuality is significant,which indicates that there is a spatial spillover effect of real estate financial risk and the positive impact of housing vacancy rate on real estate financial risk.Among the other explanatory variables,the coefficient of house price growth,the growth rate of sales of real estate,and the growth rate of GDP passed the significance test at least at a significant level of 5%.The coefficients of the first two are positive,and the impact on real estate financial risk is positive.The impact of GDP growth on real estate financial risk is negative.Six indicators,including housing vacancy rate and growth rate of home loan balances,were selected as early warning indicators for real estate financial risks.Comprehensive warning indicators were constructed by using principal component analysis to determine index weights,and forecasted by using the gray forecasting model GM(1,1)for 2017.The real estate financial risk level in 2018 and 2019 was slightly hot,slightly hot,and overheated.Finally,based on the above studies,this paper presents the real estate finance in the context of improving China's high housing vacancy rate from four aspects:strengthening social credit system construction,improving risk management capabilities of commercial banks;promoting the securitization of housing mortgage loans,and decentralizing real estate financial risks.The problem of risk.