Research On Trade Potential Between Guangdong And ASEAN Countries

Due to the interference of political and economic factors,the export products of Guangdong Province are often affected by many trade barriers,such as anti-dumping,technical barriers and so on.At the same time,as the largest trade province in China,Guangdong Province will face greater trade risks.In 2017,19.1% of Guangdong's exports depended on the U.S.market,15.6% on the European Union,and only 6.1% were exported to ASEAN.Cooperation with ASEAN countries was conducive to avoiding over-reliance on the European and American markets.Guangdong Province and ASEAN are geographically similar and closely related.Both sides have a long history of exchanges.There are differences in factor endowments between Guangdong Province and ASEAN,strong economic complementarity,and huge space and potential for bilateral trade.Mutual beneficial cooperation will help promote the rapid growth of bilateral trade and help Guangdong to open up a broader international market through ASEAN countries.What is the current situation of trade development between Guangdong Province and ASEAN countries? What are the factors affecting trade between Guangdong Province and ASEAN countries? And what is the trade potential between Guangdong Province and ASEAN? Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis,this paper focuses on the current trade situation,trade potential and trade influencing factors between Guangdong Province and ASEAN countries.It points out that trade between Guangdong Province and ASEAN countries is faced with such problems as imperfect infrastructure and industrial matching,lack of standardized market operation mechanism,and excessive competition between the two sides.It is believed that bilateral trade is insufficient and has greater trade potential.Therefore,this paper chooses relevant trade data of Guangdong Province and ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2017 to build a trade gravity model.The results show that: the difference of per capita GDP,ASEAN population,the export volume of high-tech products in Guangdong Province,the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,the stability of ASEAN political environment have a positive impact on the trade between Guangdong Province and ASEAN,and the bilateral exchange rate has a positive impact on the trade between Guangdong Province and ASEAN.The trade efficiency between Guangdong Province and ASEAN is basically low,which belongs to the potential development type from 1999 to 2017.After 2006,the trade efficiency has been improved,but the trade efficiency between 2006 and 2017 has been improved slowly.At the end of this paper,it is proposed that in order to promote trade cooperation between Guangdong and the Philippines,Thailand,Malaysia,Singapore and Indonesia,Guangdong Province should adjust its industrial structure,broaden its fields of cooperation,make full use of the advantages of overseas Chinese,actively develop new foreign trade formats and give preferential policies to enterprises.At the same time,the paper also puts forward some proposals for trade cooperation between Guangdong Province and the Philippines,Thailand,Malaysia,Singapore and Indonesia.Policy recommendations.