Investigate On Influence Factors Of Guangdong's Export Trade And Its Export Potential To ASEAN

Guangdong-ASEAN bilateral trade relations has been continuously strengthened in areas such as agriculture,energy,manufacturing and processing industries since China and the ASEAN signed the agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation framework in November 2002,which decided to establish China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010.This development promots economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN into a golden development age.Taking its geopolitical and popularity advantages Guangdong almost takes thirty percent of China's total export to the ASEAN.Guangdong and the ASEAN have developed into the indispensable trading partners with each other.However,having a deep observation of the beautiful transcripts of Guangdong-ASEAN economic and trade relations we can found that the growth rate and share of Guangdong's export to the ASEAN both glided down.A prominent contrast exists especially compared with Jiangsu Province.This paper takes a comparative analysis of Guangdong and Jiangsu fosusing on aspects of volume of export,growth rate,types of export,and modes structure of export subjects.It is discovered that both Guangdong and Jiangsu increas their export volume to the ASEAN,but Jiangsu performed better in growth rate and export commodity structure.In order to verify those differences,this paper firstly tries to build a gravity model based on trade performance of the two provinces to analyze the influence factors of Guangdong and Jiangsu's exports to the ASEAN.Then,on the basis of the analysis,it calculates export flow potential value in order to see whether exists maket potential of export to the ASEAN.The research manifests that the main factors which influence the two provinces' export to the ASEAN are aggregate body of economy,economic development level,and the relative differences in economic development in the relevant trading areas.At the same time,the factors of R&D and per capita capital stock apparently influence Jiangsu-ASEAN export but not so significently to Guangdong.For Guangdong-ASEAN trade it is more obviously influenced by the average wages than Jiangsu.Analysis of the paper also shows that indeed exists some room for the two provinces to improve their exports to the ASEAN even though the export potential is not so big in general.In this aspect Jiangsu enjoys some advantages over Guangdong in recent years since its export commodity structure is relatively more optimal.Jiangsu mainly exports the capital-intensive and technology-intensive goods to the ASEAN but Guangdong's major export products to the ASEAN are still labor-intensive goods.It is obvious that Jiangsu has a stronger export competitiveness than Guangdong and the later needs to make an effective adjustment and a greater effort.Finally,on the basis of comparative analysis with Jiangsu the paper presents some policy suggestions of how to transform trade potential into the real prosperous overall trade and economic exchanges with the ASEAN and to increase Guangdong's export to the ASEAN as well as to improve the bilateral trade environment.