Research On The Effects Of China's Industry Transfer To The ASEAN Countries On The Path Of FDI

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative,the scale of China's industry transfer to the ASEAN countries has been expanding,while China itself is faced with many problems such as rising production costs and increasing trade barriers.Thus,it has become an important going-out way for China to perform the industry transfer via FDI.In addition,although international industry transfer has always been one significant research topic in the subjects of industry economics and international economics,academic perspectives are usually restricted to studying the industry transfer from the developed countries to the developing ones,and the empirical researches are mainly focused on the motivations and location choices of FDI.On the contrary,studies on the relations between FDI and industry transfer are almost a blank,let alone the effects on the recipient countries under the South-South Cooperation model.Based on the needs of reality and theory,the comprehensive effects of China's industry transfer to the ASEAN countries from the perspective of the recipient countries are discussed in this paper.Based on the above problems,lots of literature on FDI,industry transfer and the relationships between them as well as the effects brought by industry transfer are systematically reviewed below.Then,the situations of FDI and industry transfer from China to the ASEAN countries are comprehensively reviewed,and the basic conditions of the industry transfer effect in the ASEAN countries in terms of technological environment,industrial development and capital accumulation are also analyzed in the paper.Finally,the effects of technology spillover,industrial structure and capital accumulation of China's industrial transfer to the ASEAN countries are studied by means of empirical approaches.Specifically,the total factor productivity is calculated on the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function,some influence factors are selected and a regression equation is constructed for the fixed effect regression analysis of technology spillover problem.Through the calculation of the level of industrial structure,the fixed effect regression is selected for the panel data model to study the effect of industrial structure.By using the variable coefficient model,this research tests whether China's investment has the crowding-in effect on the domestic investment of the recipient countries.The following conclusions are drawn in this research:(1)China's industry transfer has a strong promoting effect on the technological development of the ASEAN countries,which can be more effective when observed in a long time span;(2)China's industry transfer has a very strong promoting effect on the optimization and upgrade of the industrial structure of the ASEAN countries,but compared with the whole ASEANs,this effect is more obvious for the old members;(3)China's industry transfer plays a certain role in promoting the capital accumulation of the ASEAN countries,but it still fails to form the crowding-in effect on their domestic investment;(4)There are some other conclusions:firstly,the R&D level,the economic openness and the infrastructure construction have a great contribution to its technological progress;secondly,consumption needs have great positive effect on the promotion of the industrial structure;Thirdly,the high-level human capital can strongly promote the technology progress and upgrade the industrial structure,while the ordinary human capital can not.Besides,some important suggestions are given according to these conclusions from the perspectives of the governments and enterprises of China and the ASEANs.