| Beef cattle industry is an important part of China’s livestock industry,the healthy development of the beef cattle industry to increase farmers’ income,enhance the supply of beef security capacity,stabilize the market price of beef,consolidate the results of poverty alleviation,comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization,comprehensive construction of a harmonious society is of great significance.Due to the long production cycle,diversified employment channels for farmers and the policy of grassland grazing ban,the rising cost of breeding,unstable breeding income,shortage of cattle sources due to the withdrawal of a large number of free-range farmers,tight beef supply due to the faster growth rate of beef consumption than production,and continuous increase in beef prices have put pressure on both upstream and downstream of the beef cattle industry chain in China.In this study,based on the analysis of beef price fluctuation rules and influencing factors,a vector auto regressive(VAR)model is established to analyze the fluctuation rules and transmission effects of beef market prices between industry chains and production and marketing areas,in order to provide reference for reasonable regulation of beef market and optimization of industrial structure.The research results show that:(1)fluctuations in beef production growth,faster growth in consumer demand led to a decline in the self-sufficiency rate,urban and rural consumption gap increased.China’s beef production fluctuations in growth,mainly due to the increase in the slaughter rate.Imports of "Thirteen" significant growth in supply growth faster than the growth rate of production,the self-sufficiency rate fell to 75%.Income improvement and the growth of rural residents consumption demand and other factors to drive future beef consumption demand is still a large space to improve.Low scale rate,unreasonable profit distribution model,low level of disease prevention and control,high pressure on environmental protection and low cost competitiveness are the main influencing factors of the beef cattle industry.(2)beef prices show cyclical fluctuations up.since 1994 the beef market has experienced a total of three complete beef price cycles and a new cycle,1994-2007 cycle of beef prices are low,but the longest cycle time,the largest fluctuations,2011-2019 cycle fluctuations are also large,57.5%,April2019 into a new cycle,fluctuations relatively small.(3)The impact of production costs upstream of the industry chain is the most important influencing factor of beef price fluctuations.The fluctuations of calf,finishing and roughage costs and white cattle prices will affect beef prices,and long-term changes in beef prices are most influenced by calf prices and short-term by finishing feed costs.In the direction of the industry chain,feed costs have the longest lagging effect on white cattle prices,followed by calves;in the opposite direction of the industry chain,beef prices have no lagging effect on calf prices,concentrate feed costs,roughage costs and white cattle prices.(4)Beef price fluctuations in the distribution area are transmitted to the corresponding main production area for a longer period of time than the price transmission from the main production area to its main distribution area,and the direction of transmission is dominated by beef prices from the main production area to the main distribution area.In the northern market,the main production province beef prices to the marketing area of the time to short than the live cattle prices to the main marketing area of the time,and live cattle prices to the marketing area of beef prices impact amplitude and duration of long.In the southern market,the price of live cattle in the main production area has a greater impact on the price of beef in the selling area than the price of beef in the production area,which prefers hot fresh meat.Based on the above findings,it is proposed to: optimize the layout and industrial division of basic and fattening cattle,increase the subsidies for basic cattle,and establish a benefit linkage mechanism between production and marketing areas to guarantee supply;increase the amount of feed material reserves,strengthen the utilization of crop waste,enhance the rate of targeted slaughter,and cultivate beef brands,so as to reduce the cost of beef cattle breeding,increase breeding benefits,and enhance breeding enthusiasm;improve the beef market information Release and early warning mechanism,timely and effective regulatory measures to protect market stability. |
PDF Full Text Request