The Research On The Transmission Mechanism Of Domestic And Foreign Agricultural Products Price Fluctuation

With the development of globalization and integration of the world economics.Domestic and international market to contact more closely. The development of theagricultural commodities is related to the development of the national economy andthe stability of the people′s life. In the marketing economy, resource allocation ismainly resulted from the procedure of price changes, so price is the core indicators ofeconomic operation, changes in the price level has become an importantmacroeconomic phenomenon. Bulk agricultural price in the international market willaffect the price of agricultural products in the domestic market through the pricetransmission mechanism, which is related to the healthy development of the nationaleconomy and agricultural safety.Considered the transmission mechanism of the price fluctuations of agriculturalcommodities, this paper expounded the price volatility theory and the principle ofprice transmission mechanism, analyzed the data collected, reviewed the status of theprice fluctuations of international agricultural commodities, summarized the law ofthe volatility and its inherent characteristics, looked for the emerging impact of theprice of agricultural commodities in the new situation. In the empirical study, weadopted the method of combining space price conduction and vertical pricetransmission and used the integated model of studying the agricultural pricetransmission mechanism, market-chain-cooperated model. For the space path, wevertified the relationship of corn and soybean futures prices between DCE and CBOT.At the same time, we considered the wheat futures prices relationship between inZCE and CBOT. The result show, for corn and soybean there is a long-termequipment relationship between domestic future market and foreign market and thereis a bidirectional leading relationship between them. But for wheat the relationship islow. For the vertical pathway, we vertified the price transmission of China′s soybeanfutures, corn futures, wheat futures on the spot. The result show that there islong-term equipment relationship between soybean, corn, wheat prices in futures market and cash market and there is a one-way leading relationship that futures pricesguides the spot prices; the futures price play a important role in the price fluctuation.On the basis of the analysis above, at the end of this paper are summarized, andsome suggestions for agricultural commodities stabilizing price fluctuations andimprovement to the future market, hoping the agricultural product market to be morestable, the development to be more healthy, the safety of agriculture to be bettersafeguard.