Analysis Of The Differences In The Inter-provincial Spillover Effect Among The Manufacturing Industries In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region stand shoulder to shoulder as the three major regional economies in China.However,the economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region lags significantly behind the other two.Among the three major urban agglomerations,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic strength is relatively weak with the lowest degree of economic ties and collaboration.Since the outline of collaborative development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province has been implemented in an all around way,the integration process of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has gradually accelerated.The economic development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei not only depends on its own comparative advantages,but also relies more on the drive from the other two places.The manufacturing industry is the core driving force of the real economy and the best landing point for the coordinated development of the regional economy.The development of the manufacturing industry in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is in urgent need of transformation and upgrading.Under this background,the paper combines the vector autoregressive model and directed acyclic graph technology to analyze the Inter-provincial spillover effect among the manufacturing industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,which provided insight into studying the interaction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and exploring the degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industrial integration.Firstly,the paper combs the concept of spillover effect and research status at home and abroad,reviews the development history of spillover theory,then defines the internal provincial spillover effect of the researched Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei manufacturing and proposes knowledge spillover,Labor migration and capital flow as three spill paths.The data used in the paper is based on the gross industrial output value of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei manufacturing industries during 1998-2016.To resolve the problems in the data,the index caliber is unified to whole industrial caliber.Secondly,the empirical part of the paper uses directed acyclic graph technology to identify the inter-provincial spillover effect among the manufacturing industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.In this paper,vector autoregressive model is first established,and the residual correlation coefficient matrix is obtained showing the contemporaneous relationship between variables.Based on this,we use directed acyclic graph technique with the PC algorithm to identify and estimate the causality between variables.Lastly,the article research found that the manufacturing industries in the Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are closely linked,resulting in an agglomeration economy and a high level of industry integration.Relative to Hebei,Beijing and Tianjin have low industry linkages and few connections.There is a certain degree of competition between Beijing and Tianjin.Hebei has more interaction with Beijing and Tianjin.Hebei as an initiator and receiver is different in the type of industry.Tianjin has had an good influence on Hebei’s develpment,but has not played a leading role in Beijing’s development.Against Beijing’s spillover to Hebei,Tianjin’s spillover to Hebei has an wider range.Low-value-added manufacturing industries are less likely to have inter-provincial spillover effects,but tends to have negative spillovers,that is,crowding-out effects.Based on empirical evidence above,the passage proposes policy suggestions such as building industrial parks,promoting regional mobility of talented people,clarifying the functional positioning in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and establishing compensation mechanisms.