| Manufacturing industry is the important part of secondary industry which is of strategic significance to national economy,so manufacturing is the foundation of economy.Chinese manufacturing is large yet not powerful which still faces problems of low per-capita growth rate,excess low-quality supply,and failure to break through the key chains.To break through the predicament,it is not possible to solely rely on the extensive development of increasing the input of production factors.Only technology development is the fundamental driven force.Therefore,promoting technology spillover among the upstream and downstream of manufacturing is of great practical significance to upgrade industrial technology and adjust industrial structure.This dissertation is supported by Industry Diffusion Effect Theory,Endogenous Economic Growth Theory and The Pentathlon Framework Theory,comparing the pros and cons of existing empirical methods and finally chooses to use the tools of input-output analysis and spatial econometric model.To present current situation of vertical relationships among manufacturing industries,firstly is to divide 32 industries into 6 sectors based on the technical similarity,then to respectively calculate the Intermediate Demand Rate,Influence Coefficient and Inductivity Coefficient based on the three-period input-output information of China during2007 to 2018.The results indicate that manufacturing industry as a whole is extending from the middle-upper stream to the downstream which is of higher added value.Among them,the light manufacturing sectors and machinery equipment manufacturing sectors tend to be downstream,while the chemical sectors,high-tech sectors,metallurgy sectors,and resource processing sectors tend to be upstream.To analyze from the perspective of vertical influence and inductivity,chemical sectors,mechanical equipment sectors,and high-tech sectors have stronger influence above the average level of the manufacturing industries,but only the hightech industry sector has both above average influence and inductivity,which emphasizes the strategic importance of high-tech industry that a small leak will sink a great ship.Next step is to further introduce technology elements into the vertical relationship to study the vertical technology spillover effect.Build a spatial econometric panel model,using 32 manufacturing industry data from 2017 to 2019 to regress to get to the overall vertical technology effect of the whole manufacturing industry.The explanatory variable of the model is the technical output index ‘New Product Sales’,and the explanatory and control variables are the relevant technology input index.The construction of the spatial weight matrix is based on the input-output relationship of 32 industries in 2018,and forms forward weight matrix and the backward weight matrix.After a series of model tests,it is finally determined that the model with forward weight matrix is to adopt the Spatial Auto Regression(SAR)model,and the model with forward weight matrix is to adopt Spatial Doberman Model(SDM).The regression results show that: Firstly,both the forward and backward vertical technology spillover effects are significant.The difference is that the backward one has a one-year lag while the forward one has not,the intensity of forward technology spillover is far greater than that of backward.It suggests that although forward industry technology spillover effect is gradually emerging in China,the market innovation activities are still mainly driven by the downstream industries.Secondly,it is found that backward technology spillover occurs through the path of external R&D cooperation,but this path is not significant if the forward direction.Thirdly,from the perspective of factors that affect technology output,human capital is the decisive factor for technology output,while the impact of internal R&D capital investment is not found significant.To summarize the above conclusions,China’s manufacturing still faces problems of uncoordinated and unbalanced technology spillovers,and the vast majority driven force for technological innovation is still from the demand-side rather than supply-driven.Therefore,in order to improve the overall technological spillovers,it is suggested to start from upstream industries.To reach this expectation,this research puts forward the following suggestions:firstly,adhere to the "Supply-Side Reform" of strategic upstream industries,call for the new downstream demand created by high-quality upstream supply;Secondly,advocate external R&D cooperation in upstream sectors to strengthen industry-university-research exchanges;Thirdly is to always emphasize the decisive role of talents in technological development,and to improve the institutional protection of R&D personnel;Fourthly is to further expand the source of corporate technology R&D capital and encourage venture capital to enter the hightech industry. |
PDF Full Text Request