The Impact Of African Swine Fever On Meat Industrial Chain Prices In China

Livestock and poultry industry is an important support for China’s agricultural economic development.Ensuring the supply and price stability of meat and poultry market is related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood.In recent years,in addition to obvious cyclical fluctuations,China’s meat and poultry prices have also been affected by various external shocks,especially the impact of major sudden animal diseases.In particular,the first outbreak of African swine fever in China in August 2018 directly led to the continuous decline of pig production capacity,and the pork price has continuously exceeded the highest value in history.At the same time,due to the substitution effect,A series of chain reactions have also taken place in China’s poultry market and beef and mutton market.In order to explore the price fluctuation law of meat and poultry industry chain price during the outbreak of animal diseases,taking African classical swine fever as an example,this paper analyzes the net impact of major sudden epidemics on the price of meat and poultry industry chain in China from horizontal and vertical dimensions.In order to study the impact of African swine fever on the price of China’s meat and poultry industry chain,and avoid the impact of conventional factors mixed with the impact of African swine fever,based on the idea of counterfactual inference and using out of sample prediction technology,this paper compares and analyzes the difference in the price of China’s meat and poultry industry chain between the actual occurrence of African swine fever and the hypothetical absence of African swine fever,To explore the net impact of African swine fever on the market price of China’s meat and poultry industry chain.In order to further study the dynamic influence relationship between the horizontal market prices of meat and poultry under the influence of African swine fever,this paper uses the directed acyclic graph to measure the dynamic causal relationship between the nine prices in the upper,middle and lower reaches of China’s pork,chicken and beef industry chain.Based on the results of the directed acyclic graph,the historical decomposition method is used to decompose the retail price fluctuation after the occurrence of African swine fever into the contribution and influence degree of multiple prices.The results are as follows:(1)15 months after the outbreak of African swine fever,the growth rates of pig price,pork wholesale price and pork retail price were the highest,reaching 266%,196% and 184% respectively.The maximum net growth rates of wholesale and retail prices in beef market are 16% and 31% respectively,and the maximum net growth rates of wholesale and retail prices in chicken market are 13% and 21% respectively.(2)African swine fever has expanded the price difference in the industrial chain of China’s meat and poultry market.The price difference in the upper,middle and lower reaches of China’s pork and beef markets is higher than the level before the epidemic.With the continuous upgrading of the impact of the epidemic,the retail and production price difference and wholesale and production price difference in the chicken market in the later stage of the epidemic also exceed the level before the epidemic.(3)Except for the producer price of beef market,other prices have dynamic causality.Within one year of the occurrence of African swine fever,the fluctuation of pork retail,chicken retail and beef retail prices was mainly explained by the prices in their respective markets.One year later,pig prices,pork wholesale prices and pork retail prices gradually became the main reasons for the rise of pork,chicken and beef retail prices.At the highest price point,the combined impact of the three prices in the pork market even exceeded 2/3.At the same time,the retail price of chicken and beef affect each other,which is the second major reason for each other’s price fluctuation.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first,improve the supporting production and breeding facilities and improve the level of safety and epidemic prevention;Second,establish and improve market monitoring and early warning,and build an information platform.For example,take the number of live pigs as the index,carry out production monitoring,strengthen data collection,analysis and release,accurately and timely grasp market trends,unblock information transmission channels and stabilize market confidence;Third,give rational play to the role of substitution,pay attention to the price correlation of meat and poultry,optimize the industrial structure of meat and poultry,and vigorously develop animal husbandry dominated by cattle and sheep on the basis of stabilizing pig production;Fourth,strengthen the connection between production and marketing,improve the economic benefits of the whole industrial chain,open up the core links of the industrial chain such as production,processing,storage and transportation and consumption,develop appropriate large-scale breeding according to local conditions,establish industrial cluster belts and form industrial consortia.