| The "Belt and Road" strategy is a national-level strategy proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping,including the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road",aiming at achieving common development and mutual benefit for the countries along the route.It is a great practice for China to use its own production capacity,capital,talents and technology to carry out all-round cooperation with countries along the route.Since the implementation of the"Belt and Road Initiative",the enthusiasm of "co-construction" has increased day by day.Many projects have been put into operation one after another.The "Belt and Road" strategy has become increasingly influential in the world and has won worldwide attention.Firstly,the thesis sorts out the relevant research status at home and abroad,reviews the development process and main contents of the related economic theory and economic growth theory,and then proposes that the important factor that causes economic linkage between countries is the flow of factors between countries.The article selects 28 typical countries along the "Belt and Road" to conduct research,and divides it into three major sections according to the geographical differences of each country.The empirical part is based on the GDP data of the countries along the "Belt and Road" from 1978 to 2017 to examine the economic linkages between China and 28 typical countries along the route.At the same time,China’s import and export trade data from 1978 to 2017 was used to test this economic correlation.In this paper,a directed acyclic graph is used to identify the economic relationship between countries.Firstly,a vector autoregressive model is established,and the matrix of residual correlation coefficients is obtained to reflect the correlation between variables.Then,based on the matrix,directed acyclic graph analysis is performed.Based on the acyclic graph,the social network analysis method is used to analyze the characteristics of the overall network and China’s position and influence in each sector network.Finally,the GDP correlation and related paths between countries are analyzed,and the economic growth in China Based on the analysis of spillover effects,the correlation effect test is conducted using China’s import and export trade data.The results of the article show that China has a high degree of economic association with the countries along the Belt,and the overall network density is from the largest to the third(Central Asia,Mongolia,Russia and Europe)and the first sector(Southeast Asia,South Asia).The second sector(West Asia,North Africa),but in terms of network centrality,the first sector has the largest network center,followed by the third,and the lowest network density is the second.As far as China is concerned,China’s GDP growth has spillover effects on 22 countries along the route,with positive spillovers for 16 countries such as Thailand and negative spillover effects for six countries including Saudi Arabia.China is mainly used as an engine of economic development and an intermediary of mediators in the associated networks of various sectors.Further testing the positive spillover effects of China’s economic growth,it is found that China’s import and export trade can explain this positive spillover of GDP to a large extent.Based on the research results,the article proposes policy proposals to strengthen the construction of the six economic corridors and the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,accelerate economic and trade cooperation between China and Central Asian countries,and promote the development of the strategy in depth. |
