Analysis Of The Influence Of Minimum Purchase Price On Grain Acreage

Since the minimum purchase price policy was implemented in 2005,China has adopted related policies to stabilize the minimum grain purchase price level in each period of the development,in order to mobilize the farmer s initiative for planting grain and ensure the supply of key foods.The evaluation of China's implementation of the minimum purchase price policy has been studied by many scholars.However,there is not much research on the effect of the minimum purchase price on the grain planting area.As a key factor and an important precondition for influencing food supply security,the grain planting area is more likely to reflect the policy performance of the minimum purchase price of grain than the variable food production that is affected by grain yield per hectare.This paper divided the factors affecting the grain planting area into five categories through reviewing the related literature,and use SPSS software to do principal component analysis on the indicators respectively included in the five types of influencing factors,then construct the multivariate linear model with the wheat and paddy planting area grain planting area as the dependent variable,to discuss the extent of the role of the grain purchase price policy preliminary.On this basis,the influencing factors affecting the planting area were reordered from the perspective of market demand,then using the AHP to build an target system that market trend is more obvious and aims at the change of the planting area.Meanwhile,this paper make an empirical analysis about the minimum grain purchase price for the sowing area of crops by selecting three representative provinces of wheat and rice production areas that according to the geographical and species differences,and use wheat as an example to explore Granger causality between that.At last,put forward some corresponding suggestions on the basis of referring to relevant experience from abroad,so that can provide data support and policy reference for better stabilize production of grain and increase farmers' planting income.The innovation of the thesis is mainly reflected in the analysis of the influencing factors affecting the wheat and paddy planting area in conjunction with the latest data after supply-side structural reform,and finding the rules of the minimum purchasing price and the elasticity coefficient of grain planting area in this context;and previous methods has been improved by using the different model to explore the effect of the minimum purchase price on the acreage of grain.Through the above studies,this paper has obtained the change disciplinarian between the minimum purchasing price and the variation of grain acreage across the country and there is obvious heterogeneity in the implementation of the policies,and Granger causality test does not exist between the minimum grain purchase price and the crop planting area,although there is a regression relationship between them.So under the background of the supply-side structural reform,it is not enough to rely solely on regulate the minimum purchase price to ensure the grain planting area,must fully consider the impact of the minimum purchase price policy on the grain market,combining with other factors such as agricultural production costs and technological progress to achieve a reasonable allocation of resources.