Research On Risk Factors Of Mortgage-backed Security Based On Analytic Hierarchy Process

At present,the continuous progress of our country's economy and society has led to the development of all walks of life.In the context of the times,which is an era of expanding opening to the outside world and accelerating the pace of internationalization,the financial sector of our country is also changing quietly.The start and development of mortgage-backed security(MBS)symbolizes that the financial capital market of China has stepped into another step.As a new type of financial products,MBS has the advantages of revitalizing the funds and optimizing the allocation of resources,but at the same time there are also risks in the process of operation.Nowadays,in the initial stage of the development of MBS,risk prevention should not be underestimated.Therefore,It is essential to have a deep study of the risks in the MBS running process.In this paper,a combination of theory and empirical method is used to study the risk factors affecting MBS.First of all,referring to foreign experiences and China's national conditions,risks of MBS in China are enumerated and classified.Successively analyzes the meaning,characteristics,causes and influencing factors of the credit risk,prepayment risk,true sale risk,issuing and transaction risk,third-party risk,interest risk,liquidity risk,macroeconomic volatility risk,natural disaster risk,legal and policy risk,and risks of the underdeveloped primary market.Secondly,on the basis of qualitative analysis,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the major risk factors that affect MBS.After collecting risk weight data through expert scoring method,the paper screens and integrates score data according to the quantity and effectiveness of the questionnaire recovery.Yaahp 10.3 software is used to carry out an empirical study based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP),which includes the establishment of hierarchical analysis structure and judgment matrix.Then,the consistency check is carried out,through the weight analysis of single-sort and whole-sort,a conclusion is thus reached that: Credit risk is the largest among the major risk factors that affect MBS.Subsequently,further research on the credit risk of MBS is carried out.The paper selects the annual datas of 2008-2016 economic variables which affect the MBS credit risk,and does the multiple linear regression analysis by using software Eviews7.0.Finally,the conclusion is drawn: The residential consumer price index,the price expectation index and the current income perception index are the important factors affecting the MBS credit risk.Finally,according to the empirical results,and combined with the national conditions of China,five countermeasures for risk prevention are put forward: We should establish long-term mechanism for regulating the real estatemarket,improve the per capita income perception index of the public,create a smooth macroeconomic environment,dissolve interest rate risks in a variety of angles,provide the legal and policy system for the development of MBS.