Research On The Relationship Between Managerial Overconfidence And Supply Chain Concentration

From the perspective of managerial bounded rationality,this paper studies the influence of managers' overconfidence on supply chain concentration,takes into account the factors of industry regulation,and introduces the regulatory variable of environmental uncertainty.This paper studies the relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and supply chain concentration from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.It compares the relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and supply chain concentration in regulated and non-regulated industries in detail.Besides,it also discusses the impact of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between them,and further compares the impact of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between regulated and non-regulated industries.What is the difference between the two? After consulting the relevant research materials at home and abroad,this paper explores the four theoretical hypotheses based on the theory of overconfidence and the corresponding analysis tools.The research object of this paper is the data of A shares in Chinese listed companies from 2012 to 2017.This paper uses management compensation to measure overconfidence,distinguishes regulated industry from non-regulated industry according to National Economic Industry Classification,and uses the standard deviation of sales revenue after eliminating industry uncertainty and enterprise growth factors to measure the environmental uncertainty of the company.After a series of screening and data processing,4293 samples were finally obtained.Using SAS 6.1 to analyze the samples,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Compared with rational managers,overconfident managers have a significant negative correlation with the company's supply chain concentration.(2)For enterprises regulated by different industries,the influence of overconfidence on supply chain concentration is also different.Compared with regulated industries,the negative correlation between managerial overconfidence and supply chain concentration is more significant in non-regulated industries.(3)Environmental uncertainty has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between managerial overconfidence and supply chain concentration.That is to say,the increase of environmental uncertainty will weaken the negative correlation between managerial overconfidence and supply chain concentration.(4)For enterprises regulated by different industries,the impact of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between overconfidence and supply chain concentration is also different.Compared with regulatory industries,in non-regulatory industries,the negative moderating effect of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between managerial overconfidence and supply chain concentration is more obvious.Therefore,from the perspective of psychology,this paper studies the influence of managerial overconfidence on supply chain concentration.At the same time,in order to study the data professionally and accurately,this paper added the robustness test and endogenous test after the empirical study,so as to better analyze the impact of managerial working style under overconfident state on the company.On the one hand,it enriches the research literature on enterprise supply chain,emphasizing that stakeholders such as supply chain formed by customers and suppliers will be affected by managerial psychological characteristics,and puts forward suggestions for company supply chain governance.On the other hand,the results of this study also show that managerial overconfidence has a good side.This ability can attract more stakeholders and increase the selectivity of enterprises.At the same time,it can explain why companies sometimes prefer to use overconfident managers to provide a new way of thinking for the company's talent appointment.