Environmental Uncertainty,managerial Overconfidence And Firm's Innovation Input

In recent years,with the rapid development of economy,innovation has increasingly become the focus of common concern,but also aroused great attention of our government.In the "13th Five-Year" planning period,the government requires companies to deepen the awareness of innovation,increase innovation investment,so as to improve the competitive ability of the enterprise in the market.But,at present,some enterprise innovation input level is still not high.One of the important factors is environmental uncertainty.The environmental uncertainty affects the judgment about the benefits and risks of innovation.Another important factor is managers,managers with different personality characteristics have different influence on innovation investment decision.Ever since Schumpeter(1912)put forward his " innovation theory",scholars have conducted researches about factors which influence corporate innovation investment from various angles.But,in these studies,scholars regard managers as rational people,and ignore the influence of the manager's irrational psychology on the decision-making behavior.Furthermore,overconfidence belongs to cognitive scope,it is influenced not only by their own personality characteristics,but also is changed with the change of the environment.Therefore,based on the conclusion of the relationship between overconfidence and innovation input.This paper will try to measure managers psychology such as overconfidence and study the effect of shot-term and long-term overconfidence managers on enterprise innovation input.Further,we analysis the relationship between them and innovation input when in the environmental uncertainty.This paper combines related theory of behavior economics,bounded rationality,principal-agent theory and cognition psychology to give a full theoretical and empirical analysis through the panel data of non-finance list companies in ShenZhen and Shanghai capital market from 2013 to 2015 which perform stock stimulus.The empirical results show that: First,short-term overconfidence managers tend to be more innovative than long-term overconfident managers.The reason is that,compared with short-term one,long-term overconfident managers may be more concerned about the future of the company's stability and value added,so that they are more careful of high-risk items.Second,environmental uncertainty can strengthen the positive relationship between managers with short-term one and innovation input;environmental uncertainty can weaken the positive relationship between managers with long-term one and innovation input.Finally,this paper puts forward four suggestions on the basis of the research conclusion and the present situation of research and development expenditure disclosure: First,improving the employ system of managers;Second,creating a good environment for innovation.Third,improving the policy of disclosure of expenditure of R&D;Fourth,to strengthen the support for R & D innovation.Then,this paper puts forward the deficiencies and prospects of the research in this paper from the perspective of managers overconfidence indicators and limitations of the research object.