The Effect Of Competition And Demand Uncertainty In Overconfidence Retailer Supply Chain Systems

Overconfidence preference theory as one of the important psychology researches has been very widely used in behavioral economics. A growing number of economists apply overconfidence to economics. However, the behavior of the supply chain integration about overconfidence studies is rare. In addition, the game theory as an effective tool for economic management, it also has significance for the management of the supply chain. Especial for a supply chain system with multiple retailers, game theory can be used as the important theoretical basis. Meanwhile, randomized comparisons is an effective way that use the probabilistic methods to study system policy uncertainty and its impact on the performance. Supply chain management issues such as different risk preferences coordinate sales efforts in supply chain, inventory management and supply chain systems optimal order quantity and optimal profits, etc. have been fully resolved, but the overconfidence supply chain contract coordinating study about the impact of these strategies still need to be further explored. The introduction part introduced the main research methods and models, the development of the behavior of the supply chain theory and supply chain contract, overconfidence theory, supply chain with game theory, stochastic comparison method and dual channel supply chain system. Core part mainly studies the overconfidence behavior factors of supply chain model, the game theory and dual channel supply chain model into the overconfidence of the operation of supply chain management, studies the influence of various factors on the system, including competitive game, overconfidence channels and consumer preferences and other factors.First, reference newsboy model, the same expectations were set a variance forecast demand but there is a deviation of overconfidence and a newsboy expected demand forecasting explore newsboys and rational exploration of the newsboy and profits in order difference, calculated a loss of profits overconfidence newsboys. And the use of randomized comparative study needs and methods of standardization transform uncertainty on overconfidence newsboy order quantity and profits.Secondly, based on the study of single overconfidence newsboy supply chain system, we studied the multiple newsboy overconfidence inventory model. And we further studied the effect of demand uncertainty on the optimal order quantity with the randomized comparative. Thirdly, in the uncertainty condition, we study a supply chain with a rational supplier and a overconfident retailer. We introduce a contract that is Gain/Loss-sharing-and-buyback(GLB) contract. We also introduce three particular cases for GLB contract: buyback contract, Gain/Loss-sharing(GL) wholesale contract and wholesale contract. Lastly, considering the supply chain model under stochastic demand, we set a dual channel supply chain model. We studied how the consumers’ channel preference and overconfidence influence the optimal inventory and profits of the retailers and manufacturers.