Research On Manager Overconfidence,Environmental Uncertainty And Enterprise Performance Relationship

The study of managerial overconfidence originated in the 1980s and was gradually introduced into the country until the last decade.Through cognitive psychology and behavioral science related research,people's decision-making behavior is not completely rational,and this phenomenon is more prominent in managers.Based on the theory of overconfidence,managers as the main decision makers of the company's operations,this cognitive bias will inevitably have a major impact on company decisions and company development.At the same time,with the advent of the era of knowledge economy,the environment of enterprises has become uncertain.More and more enterprises are unable to clearly distinguish and effectively control this uncertain environment,and its decision-making and strategy deployment for business operations.All of them have had an important impact,and environmental factors play an unquestionable role in the production and operation of enterprises.On the basis of collating relevant literature,data and actual research data,this paper defines managers'overconfidence,environmental uncertainty and enterprise performance,and selects the effective data of Listed Companies in domestic coal industry from 2013 to 2017 as the basis of hypothesis test.Firstly,according to the characteristics of coal industry,10 performance indicators are selected to quantitatively evaluate the performance of listed coal enterprises in China.Secondly,the quantitative indicators of Managerial Overconfidence and environmental uncertainty are selected,and the hypothesis of the impact of indicators on corporate performance is put forward.Finally,we use descriptive statistical analysis,correlation analysis and regression analysis of data samples to verify the theoretical assumptions proposed in this study,and draw the following conclusions:first,managers'overconfidence is negatively correlated with corporate performance,and the enhancement of overconfidence leads to the decline of corporate performance;second,the stronger the degree of environmental uncertainty,managers'overconfidence.The weaker the trust level is;thirdly,environmental uncertainty leads to the fluctuation of corporate performance,which has a significant positive correlation;fourthly,environmental uncertainty has a moderating effect on the relationship between managers'overconfidence and corporate performance.Therefore,through the establishment of a scientific evaluation system,we should effectively identify the level of over-confidence,so as to encourage managers to continue learning and improve the level of skills;At the same time,enhance risk awareness,actively deal with environmental uncertainty,and optimize the financial decision-making process of enterprises to improve the level of corporate performance.The conclusion of this paper has a certain theoretical guidance for the coal listed companies to standardize and perfect the management system,make scientific management decisions,and improve the performance of enterprises.