Zhejiang Forestry Product Export Potential And Its Influencing Factors

Based on the definition of forestry product categories and export potential,this paper draws on relevant research results of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on forest products export,export potential and its influencing factors.This paper mainly uses the data that from China customs(2009-2016)and the natural determinants of trade,natural resistance factors and artificial resistance factors First,this paper analyzes the basic situation of Zhejiang forestry products export trade by statistical description,including export status,major export markets,and major export forest products.Then,the stochastic frontier gravitational model and the trade inefficiency term model are constructed to empirically estimate the export potential of Zhejiang forest products and its influencing factors.Finally,combined with the research conclusions,the relevant countermeasures are proposed.Research indicates:(1)Zhejiang mainly forestry export products are paper products,wood products and furniture.The status of the export industry has changed significantly;Developed and emerging market countries are both important export market.(2)The export efficiency of forestry products in Zhejiang is generally low,indicating that the export potential of Zhejiang forestry products is large,and most countries are “potentially large”,and only a few countries are “potential-exploiting” countries.For the top 30 countries in Zhejiang's export volume,the potential of Zhejiang's forestry products export is still huge,including the “One Belt and one Road” countries.For countries such as Africa,although Zhejiang's exports are small,their potential is very high.(3)In terms of natural determinants,the larger the economy of the importing country,the more favorable it is to promote the export of Zhejiang forestry products.When the importing country is out of the “One Belt and One Road” and g20 countries,it will promote the export of Zhejiang forestry products.In terms of natural resistance factors,the geographical distance has a negative impact on the export of Zhejiang forestry products.The farther the distance is,the higher the trade cost will hinder the export of Zhejiang forestry products;the exchange rate level between China and importing countries in terms of artificial resistance factors The Internet usage rate of importing countries and the existence of a free trade agreement(FTA)with China will greatly promote the export of Zhejiang forestry products to other countries.In order to stabilize and promote the export of Zhejiang forestry products,this paper puts forward the following suggestions.Based on the above research,the following suggestions are proposed in order to stabilize and promote the export of Zhejiang forestry products:For the government level,it should actively respond to the "China-US trade war",accelerate the promotion of forestry foreign investment and cooperation,strengthen regional integration policies,actively carry out free trade zone negotiations;strengthen the reform of the RMB exchange rate market.For the industry and enterprise level,they should expand the export of countries along the “One Belt and One Road” and accelerate the technological innovation capability of forest products.