Research On China's Cotton Trade In The 1920s And 1930s

The production,commercialization,internal and external trade of cotton in moderm China were a microcosm of the modern capitalist economy that penetrated feudal China.In the context of the special times of modern China,the cotton market of internal and external linkages was formed in the 1920s and 1930s.The trading port was the gateway between the inside and outside cotton markets.In the 1920s and 1930s(before the outbreak of the War of Resistance Against Japan),China had a vast area suitable for cotton production,mainly in the northern and middle section.Cotton production declined in the 1920s,rose in the 1930s,and always remained third in the world.Although there were many advances in the improvement of domestic cotton production,Chinese cotton always had the shortcomings of short fibers,and the phenomenon of adulteration.It was necessary to import long fibers and better-quality cotton from abroad.In the 1920s and 1930s,China’s cotton trade showed imports exceeding imports.Exports of cotton from abroad mainly came from India and the United States.In the 1920s,the vast majority of imports came from India.In the 1930s,the United States replaced India’s position.Most of the cotton exported to foreign countries went to Japan.The simultaneous presence of a large number of imports and exports determined the close relationship between the Chinese cotton market and the foreign market.The actual price of cotton in China showed an upward trend in the first half of the 1920s and then declined before the outbreak of the War of Resistance Against Japan.As far as the cotton price determination mechanism is concerned,there was statistically significant correlation,long-term equilibrium,and one-way Granger causality relationship between the export and import price of cotton through the cointegration model test and the Granger causality test.The price of domestic cotton was mainly controlled by the foreign cotton price,and the change of the price of domestic cotton was found smaller than that of foreign cotton.The trade volume of cotton was mainly affected by the competitive advantages of domestic and foreign cotton price from 1920 to 1932.In addition to the impact of short-term cotton supply and demand shocks,when domestic cotton price increased due to the rise of foreign price,the increase rate of domestic cotton was lower than that of foreign cotton.In this case,domestic cotton had the price advantage over foreign cotton.Therefore,imports decreased and exports increased and vice versa.After 1932,the improvement of domestic cotton played a key role in the determination of change of the trade.The characteristics of cotton price and cotton trade decision mechanism under the special era of the 1920s and 1930s in China also help understand the differences between the two cotton textile crisis in the 1920s and 1930s from the perspective of the industrial raw material and provide references for the formulation of agricultural policies,industrial policies,and trade policies.