Research On The Risk Division And Rate Determination Of Peanut Insurance In Shandong Province

As a policy of insurance,whether the agricultural insurance contract design is reasonable,and whether the rate is scientifically related to the sustainable development of policy agriculture insurance.At present,the most of the crop insurance in Shandong Province implement a unified rate,for example,the implementation of the peanut insurance rate is 4%,the premium is 16 yuan/mu,the insured amount is 400 yuan/mu.Implement the unified rate in the whole province did not take the specific risks into account,it will inevitably appear the problem that the insurance premiums don't match the risk levels,which will not only increase the risk of insurance companies,but also affect farmers' enthusiasm.So this article researches the risk zoning and the rate determination of peanut insurance in Shandong Province,in order to promote the development of agricultural insurance,this article divides the 17 of peanut production cities in Shandong Province into three risk classes,and aims to make different insurance rates according to different risks levels.The main contents are as follows:Firstly,this article analyses the situation of peanut production in Shandong Province,and analyses the main risks in the process of peanut cultivation and the problems in the process of agricultural insurance in Shandong Province.This article selected eight indexes,such as the rating of drought and flood,effective irrigation rate,specialization index,production efficiency index,income coefficient of rural residents,relative yield of cultivated land,fertility index of cultivated land and average temperature in April to September and so on.The risk division of peanut production in Shandong Province was carried out by using the eight indexes.We use the factor analysis to classify the nine indexes into two risk factors,named the yield fluctuation factor and the input factor,and use these two factor scores to do the cluster analysis.The peanut production area of Shandong Province is divided into three grades.Secondly,we collect peanut production data in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 and use the RSV of peanut to make the rate,the rate is determined by the yield distribution model method.The optimal distribution of the seven distributions is carried out by fitting the goodness Distribution model.The empirical results show that the optimal distributionmodel of the three risk areas is the Burr distribution.After obtaining the optimal yield distribution model of the three risk levels,the rate is determined and the pure rate of each risk area at 100% guarantee level is obtained.It is found that the different risk levels,the rates are very different,the premiums in the low risk areas are 2.62%,the medium risk zone rates are 3.8% and the high risk zone is 14.9%.Therefore,on the basis of risk zoning to determinate rate is very necessary.Adjust the current rates based on the rates we set so as to match the risks of the risk areas to the rates determined as far as possible.