| Land is the important guarantee of resources in the process of human survival and development.Social and economic activities of human beings will have the profound influence on the land,while the change of regional land use will affect the regional of the environment,and then influence the social and economic development.In 1990s,the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program(IGBP)combined with International Human Dimension Programme(IHDP)put forward Land Use/Land Cover Change(LUCC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)as the core of global climate change research.From then on,the studies of land use/land cover change has gradually become a hot issue of international geography,and predicting variations in space and the number of land use is one of the main problems of land use/land cover change.However,most of the current studies of land use/land cover change take the large scale area,hot area,ecological sensitive areas and so on,as the research object,research on the land use of the county scale is still relatively weak.This paper takes Yunyang district of Shiyan city as a study area,using 2006 and 2012 two periods land use data,combining with the DEM data,and with the help of Arcgis,Fragstats,Idrisi software platform,analyze the current situation of land use in Yunyang district from 2006 to 2012 and its dynamic change process.In the analysis of land use changes,this thesis discuss three aspects of the land change,such as the land use quantity change,land use degree change,landscape pattern change.With the help of DEM data,discuss the land use distribution and change characteristics in different elevation and slope grade.Based on the land use change analysis,this paper introduces the CA-Markov model,which is on the basis of cellular automata and Markov process theory,and using the model,to simulate and predict Yunxian land use in spatial structure and layout,the details are as follows:(1)The data of land use classification and elevation and slope data graded.Based on 2006 and 2012 two period land use data,according to the national standard of lan-d classification and the research purpose,reclassify the land use types.Extract elevation and slope in the DEM,and classfy elevation and slope grade.(2)Construction the Markov matrix of transfer probability.Using two periods of land use data,generate the Markov transition probability matrix of land use.(3)The construction of suitability image set.With the help of GIS platform,it could be analyzed the influence of elevation and slope to layout of the land use type,the results shows that the farmland,the construction and the waters more then 90%in the region which the elevation is less than 500 meters and the slope is less than 25 degrees.Then all the elevation and slope grade can be defined constraints to boolean image,then make suitability image set which is suitable for the study area.(4)Define Other evolution rules of the model operation.The cellular size is 100 m*100 m,the cellular neighbor is Moore model,and the filter is selected 5x5.(5)Simulation and verification.According to the definition of the model evolution rules,land spatial structure of 2012 is simulated,then making comparisons between present data and simulation data using kappa coefficients,the results shows that the model can simulate the dynamic changes of land use in the study area.Based on scenario of 2006 to 2012 land use change,the spatial structure land use in the next study period in 2018 also can be simulated.This paper combines theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,and uses cellular automata theory and Markov theory to build CA-Markov model,and through the empirical analysis on quantity structure and spatial distribution of land use in Yunxian,and it is proves that CA-Markov model have double advantages of CA model to simulate the complex space change ability and Markov model with forecasting ability of number change,also we can say that it is feasible to apply the model in land use/land cover change research in country scale. |
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