Research On Land Use Forecast And Spatial Pattern Of Land-use/Cover Change In Qianjiang City

Land is one of the most important foundations for human survival and development, and land-use/land-cover is formed under the influence of natural and human activities. With the further understanding of the earth, land-use/land-cover is becoming more and more focused by human beings. In recent years, Land-use/Land-cover Change research has increasingly focused on the temporal and spatial variation study, in order to analyze the LUCC of the area from the perspective of time and space, explore the mechanism of the change, and thus provide a reliable basis for human behavior decisions.This paper, based on the fractal theory, analyzes the land-use/land-cover change of Qianjiang City from2000to2010, gets some of characteristics of the land cover change in the studied area and then investigates its reason. Under the support of software Idrisi CA-Markov module, the paper obtains the land changes of the studied area in2020, especially construction-land change simulation, and analyzes the fractal dimension. The main results are as follows:1. Five types of land of Qianjiang City in2000and2010are calculated with the model. The results show that all the types in2010raise compared with2000, which means the complexity of the land use spatial distribution of the whole city land is an overall upward, so the spatial distribution of land use is becoming more and more complex.2. Based on the CA-Markov module with the2000and2005land-use database, paper simulated the land use of Qianjiang City in2010, and compared the simulation with the actual land use map in.2010to get a high simulation accuracy.3. Simulating the land use of construction land of Qianjiang City by2020in the CA-Markov module, paper comes to the conclusion that the increase of construction land is999.87hectares,678.98hectares reduction in arable land, waters decreases by118.15hectares, woodland reduces by184.48hectares. It shows that the farmland protection needs to be further strengthened and all of the land type of fractal dimension has decreased except woodland, which means the layout regularity of construction land of2020is improved compared with2010.