Analysis And Prediction Of Land Use/Cover Change In Qingdao

During the past decades, most cities in China have experienced unprecedentedexpansion. Associated with the process of rapid urbanization, there were significantchanges on land use/cover. A significant amount of natural lands, such as forests andwetlands, has been developed into agricultural lands and human settlements. Land useand land cover change (LUCC) has profound influences on human and naturalenvironments. In particular, it impacts land and air resources, biodiversity, energyexchange, water quality, carbon cycling, and ecosystem. Because of these greatimpacts, understanding and modeling LUCC has become an important topic forenvironmental management and land use planning. The results may contribute to theestablishment of land-use planning exploration of land use patterns. It is of realisticsignificance to protect and improve the ecological environment. Based onsocio-economic statistics and Landsat TM images of1990,2000and2006and ‘HJ-1’Satellite image of2011in Qingdao City, land use/cover changes and driving factorsfrom1990to2011were analyzed. Also, dynamic simulation of land use/cover changein Qingdao city was researched. The main contents and conclusions are as follows.（1）land use/cover changes from1990to2011in Qingdao City were analyzedusing a system dynamic model. There were significant changes on land use/cover inQingdao City in the past21years (1990—2011). Farmland and grassland decreased,while the areas of rural, urban, mining and residential lands increased. Forest area wasreduced first and increased later, and water area and unused land went to the otherway. The degree of land use became greater year by year, which indicates thatQingdao City was in the stage of land use development and the strength of land usewas enhanced to a higher level. Spatially, distinct changes took place in the middleand eastern areas of the city and a relatively small change, in the north and south-westareas. The conversion of land use type was complex, but it mainly changed into therural, urban, mining and residential areas.（2）Based on Landsat TM images and socio-economic statistics in Qingdao City, the relationships between LUCC and driving factors were analyzed using multivariateanalysis. Vector data of land use of Qingdao City in1990and2011were overlaid eachother, the region of land use change were obtained and the matrix of land use changesamples was constructed. The data of land use change and the data of driving factorswere overlaid respectively, and the matrix of driving factors of land use change wasconstructed．Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used for revealing therelationship between land use change and driving factors．The characteristics of landuse change were revealed. The driving factors of various types of land use changeswere quantitatively described. Elevation, relief amplitude, the distance between landuse change site and costal line and population density were the main driving factorsfor distribution of major land use conversion types. The next were the distancebetween land use change site and urban site, road network density and GDP.（3）The land use scenario in2011was simulated and forecasted on the basis ofland use types interpretation of2000and2011, DEM, people, GDP and range ofdistance data by means of Logistic-CA-Markov model. Results showed that thesimulation accuracy by this model attained94.27%. So the fitting accuracy will behigher with this model. Then distribution of land use spatial patterns in2022and2033were forecast. The simulated result by Logistic-CA-Markov model indicated that eachland use type from2011to2022would keep the change trend from2000to2011.Farm land, water and unused land area decrease, while, the areas of forest, grassland,rural, urban, mining and residential increase. The areas of rural, urban, mining andresidential increased from2022to2033slowly compared to that from2011to2022.